dietz%usc-cse%USC-ECL%SRI-NIC@sri-unix.UUCP (11/21/83)
Reply to Marcel Schoppers (AIList 1:101): I agree that "computers will eliminate some jobs but create others" is a feeble excuse. There's not much evidence for it. Even if it's true, those whose jobs skills are devalued will be losers. But why should this bother me? I don't buy manufactured goods to employ factory workers, I buy them to gratify my own desires. As a computer scientist I will not be laid off; indeed, automation will increase the demand for computer professionals. I will benefit from the higher quality and lower prices of manufactured goods. Automation is entirely in my interest. I need no excuse to support it. ... I very much appreciated the idea ... that we should be building expert systems in economics to help us plan and control the effects of our research. This sounds like an awful waste of time to me. We have no idea how to predict the economic effects of much of anything except at the most rudimentary levels, and there is no evidence that we will anytime soon (witness the failure of econometrics). There would be no way to test the systems. Building expert systems is not a substitute for understanding. Automating medicine and law: a much better idea is to eliminate or scale back the licensing requirements that allow doctors and lawyers to restrict entry into their fields. This would probably be necessary to get much benefit from expert systems anyway.