Hoffman.es@PARC-MAXC.ARPA (03/01/84)
In the new "soft" computer journal from Springer-Verlag, 'Abacus', Vol.
1, #2, Winter 1984, is an essay by Eric A. Weiss reviewing Feigenbaum
and McCorduck's 'Fifth Generation' book and general AI books. The
general A.I. review is worth reading. The whole piece is lengthy, but I
quote only from the final section.
--Rodney Hoffman
[This is a rather remarkable book review. In addition to discussing the
"The Fifth Generation" and several AI reference works and textbooks,
Eric Weiss describes the history and current partitioning of AI, the
disputes and alignments of the major AI centers, and the solution to
our technological race with foreign powers. It's well worth reading.
This second issue of Abacus also has interesting articles on Ada,
the language and the countess, tomographic and NMR imaging (with
equations!), and the U.S. vs. IBM antitrust suit, as well as columns
on computers and the laws and other topics. The magazine resembles
a Scientific American for the computer-oriented, and the NMR article
is of quality comparable to IEEE Computer. -- KIL]
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U.S. Response
On the basis of all this perspective, let me return to the Fifth
Generation Project itself and suggest that the U.S. response should be
thoughtful, considered, not guided by panic or fear, but based on
principles this nation has found fruitful:
build on experience
do what you do best
encourage enthusiasm
What has been our experience with foreign science and technology? We
know that new scientific knowledge gives the greatest benefit to those
nations which are most ready to exploit and use it, and this ready group
may not include the originating nation.... [discussion of rocketry,
automobiles, shipbuilding, steel, consumer electronics]
>From this experience, the U.S. should look forward to reaping the
benefits from whatever the Japanese Fifth Generation Project develops,
and, just because we are bigger, richer, and stronger, benefiting more
from these improvements than the originating nation....
... "Do what you do best." We do not compete with the Japanese very
well, but we do best in helping them.... [The U.S.] is best at helping
others, especially Japan, and at giving money away.... Thus, the
indicated course for the U.S. ... is to help the Japanese Fifth
Generation Project in every way we can: by supplying grants of money; by
loaning college professors; by buying and copying its product,
exploiting its scientific and technological developments and
breakthroughs as fast as they appear; and by ignoring or clucking
sympathetically over any failures or missed schedules. Finally,...
encourage enthusiasm.
Young military people may murmur against this stance on the grounds that
military developments must be home-grown and that the development of
technology which might be used in weapons should be guided by the
military. This assertion is borne out neither by history nor by the
present public attitude of the DoD.... [discussion of WWII anti-aircraft
guns, mines, torpedoes, and many other such]
... The advantages of letting another nation develop your military
hardware are frequently and forcefully explained to other countries by
the DoD and its industrial toadies, but these logical arguments... are
never put in their equally logical vice-versa form....
The danger is not that the Japanese will succeed -- for their successes
will result in U.S. benefits -- but that somehow we will not make prompt
use of whatever they accomplish. We might manage this neglect if we
overdo our national inclination to fight them and compete with them....
A related but more serious danger lies in the possibility that our
military people will get their thumbs into the American AI efforts and
make secret whatever they don't gum up.... Even the best ideas can be
killed, hurt, or at least delayed if hedged around with bureaucrats and
secrecy limitations.
... We should press vigorously forward on all fronts in the unplanned
and uncoordinated fashion that we all understand. We should let a
thousand flowers bloom. We should encourage everyone.... We should hand
out money. We should transport experts. We should jump up and down.
We should be ready to grab anybody's invention , even our own, and use
it. We should be ready to seize winners and dump losers, even our own.
We should look big, fearless, happy, and greedy, and not tiny,
frightened, worried, and dumb.
... The conclusion is: don't bet on the Japanese, don't bet against
them, don't fear them. Push forward with confidence that the U.S. will
muddle through -- if it can keep its government from making magnificent
plans for everyone.