JED@SU-AI@sri-unix.UUCP (08/26/83)
From: Jim Davidson <JED@SU-AI>
[Reprinted from the SCORE BBoard.]
14 Aug 8
by Steven Schlossstein
(c) 1983 Dallas Morning News (Independent Press Service)
THE FIFTH GENERATION: Artificial Intelligence and Japan's Computer
Challenge to the World. By Edward Feigenbaum and Pamela McCorduck
(Addison-Wesley, $15.55).
(Steven Schlossstein lived and worked in Japan with a major Wall
Street firm for more than six years. He now runs his own Far East
consulting firm in Princeton, N.J. His first novel, ''Kensei,-' which
deals with the Japanese drive for industrial supremacy in the high
tech sector, will be published by Congdon & Weed in October).
''Fukoku Kyohei'' was the rallying cry of Meiji Japan when that
isolated island country broke out of its self-imposed cultural cocoon
in 1868 to embark upon a comprehensive plan of modernization to catch
up with the rest of the world.
''Rich Country, Strong Army'' is literally what is meant.
Figuratively, however, it represented Japan's first experimentation
with a concept called industrial policy: concentrating on the
development of strategic industries - strategic whether because of
their connection with military defense or because of their importance
in export industries intended to compete against foreign products.
Japan had to apprentice herself to the West for a while to bring
it off.
The military results, of course, were impressive. Japan defeated
China in 1895, blew Russia out of the water in 1905, annexed Korea and
Taiwan in 1911, took over Manchuria in 1931, and sat at the top of the
Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere by 1940. This from a country
previously regarded as barbarian by the rest of the world.
The economic results were no less impressive. Japan quickly became
the world's largest shipbuilder, replaced England as the world's
leading textile manufacturer, and knocked off Germany as the premier
producer of heavy industrial machinery and equipment. This from a
country previously regarded as barbarian by the rest of the world.
After World War II, the Ministry of Munitions was defrocked and
renamed the Ministry of International Trade and Industry (MITI), but
the process of strategy formulation remained the same.
Only the postwar rendition was value-added, and you know what
happened. Japan is now the world's No. 1 automaker, produces more
steel than anyone else, manufactures over half the TV sets in the
world, is the only meaningful producer of VTRs, dominates the 64K
computer chip market, and leads the way in one branch of computer
technology known as artificial intelligence (AI). All this from a
country previously regarded as barbarbian by the rest of the world.
What next for Japan? Ed Feigenbaum, who teaches computer science
at Stanford and pioneered the development of AI in this country, and
Pamela McCorduck, a New York-based science writer, write that Japan is
trying to dominate AI research and development.
AI, the fifth generation of computer technology, is to your
personal computer as your personal computer is to pencil and paper. It
is based on processing logic, rather than arithmetic, deals in
inferences, understands language and recognizes pictures. Or will. It
is still in its infancy. But not for long; last year, MITI established
the Institute for New Generation Computer Technology, funded it
aggressively, and put some of the country's best brains to work on AI.
AI systems consist of three subsystems: a knowledge base needed
for problem solving and understanding, an inference subsystem that
determines what knowledge is relevant for solving the problem at hand,
and an interaction subsystem that facilitates communication between
the overall system and its user - between man and machine.
Now America does not have a MITI, does not like industrial policy,
has not created an institute to work on AI, and is not even convinced
that AI is the way to go. But Feigenbaum and McCorduck argue that even
if the Japanese are not successful in developing the fifth generation,
the spin-off from this 10-year project will be enormous, with
potentially wide applications in computer technology,
telecommunications, industrial robotics, and national defense.
''The Fifth Generation'' walks you through AI, how and why Japan
puts so much emphasis on the project, and how and why the Western
nations have failed to respond to the challenge. National defense
implications alone, the authors argue, are sufficient to justify our
taking AI seriously.
Smart bombs and laser weapons are but advanced wind-up toys
compared with the AI arsenal of the future. The Pentagon has a little
project called ARPA - Advanced Research Projects Agency - that has
been supporting AI small-scale, but not with the people or funding the
authors feel is meaningful.
Unfortunately, ''The Fifth Generation'' suffers from some
organizational defects. You don't really get into AI and how its
complicated systems operate until you're almost halfway through the
book. And the chapter on industrial policy - from which all
technological blessings flow - is only three pages long. It's also at
the back of the book instead of up front, where it belongs.
But the issues are highlighted well by experts who are not only
knowledgeable about AI but who are concerned about our lack of
response to yet another challenge from Japan. The author's depiction
of the drivenness of the Japanese is especially poignant. It all boils
down to national survival.
Japan no longer is in a position of apprenticeship to the West.
[Begin garbage]
The D B LD LEAJE OW IN A EMBARRUSSINOF STRATEGIC INDUSDRIES. EAgain1u
2, with few exceptions and shampoo, but it's not trying harder - if at
all.
[End garbage]
mount an effective reaponse to the Japanese challenge? ''The
Fifth Generation'' doesn't think so, and for compelling reasons. Give
it a read.
ENDTREITEL@SUMEX-AIM@sri-unix.UUCP (08/27/83)
From: Richard Treitel <TREITEL@SUMEX-AIM>
[Reprinted from the SCORE BBoard.]
Anybody who says the Japanese are *leading* in "one branch of computer
technology known as artificial intelligence" is out to lunch. And by
what standards is DARPA describable as small? And what is all this
BirdSong about other countries failing to "respond to the challenge"?
Hasn't this turkey read the Alvey report? Hasn't he noticed France's
vigorous encouragement of their domestic computer industry? Who in
America is not "convinced that AI is the way to go" (this was true of
the leadership in Britain until the Alvey report came out, I admit)
and what are they doing to hinder AI work? Does he think 64k RAMs are
the only things that go into computers? Does he, incidentally, know
that AI has had plenty of pioneers outside of the HPP?
More to the point, most of you know about the wildly over-optimistic
promises that were made in the 60's on behalf of AI, and what happened
in their wake. Whipping up public hysteria is a dangerous game,
especially when neither John Q. Public nor Malcolm Forbes himself can
do very much about the 5GC project, except put pressure on the local
school board to teach the kids some math and science.
- Richardpwh@gatech.UUCP (09/03/83)
In response to Richard Treitel's comments about the Fifth Generation book
review recently posted:
*This* turkey, for one, has not heard of the "Alvey report."
Do tell...
I believe that part of your disagreement with the book reviewer stems from the
fact that you seem to be addressing different audiences. He, a concerned but
ignorant lay-audience; you, the AI Intelligensia on the net.
phil hutto
CSNET pwh@gatech INTERNET pwh.gatech@udel-relay
UUCP ...!{allegra, sb1, ut-ngp, duke!mcnc!msdc}!gatech!pwh
p.s. - Please do elaborate on the Alvey Report. Sounds fascinating.HADDAD@SU-SCORE.ARPA (03/22/84)
From: Ramsey Haddad <HADDAD@SU-SCORE.ARPA>
[Forwarded from the Stanford bboard by Laws@SRI-AI.]
For anyone interested in these things, there is a review by John
McCarthy of Feigenbaum and McCorduck's "The Fifth Generation:
Artificial Intelligence and Japan's Computer Challenge to the World"
in the April 1984 issue of REASON magazine.
[The following is a copy of Dr. McCarthy's text, reprinted with
his permission. -- KIL]
The Fifth Generation - Artificial Intelligence and Japan's Computer
Challenge to the World - by Edward Feigenbaum and Pamela McCorduck,
Addison-Wesley Publishing Co.
Review of Feigenbaum and McCorduck - for Reason
Japan has replaced the Soviet Union as the world's second
place industrial power. (Look at the globe and be impressed).
However, many people, Japanese included, consider that this success
has relied too much on imported science and technology - too much for
the respect of the rest of the world, too much for Japanese
self-respect, and too much for the technological independence needed
for Japan to continue to advance at previous rates. The Fifth
Generation computer project is one Japanese attempt to break out of
the habit of copying and generate Japan's own share of scientific and
technological innovations.
The idea is that the 1990s should see a new generation of
computers based on "knowledge information processing" rather than
"data processing". "Knowledge information processing" is a vague term
that promises important advances in the direction of artificial
intelligence but is noncommittal about specific performance. Edward
Feigenbaum describes this project in The Fifth Generation - Artificial
Intelligence and Japan's Computer Challenge to the World, predicts
substantial success in meeting its goals, and argues that the U.S.
will fall behind in computing unless we make a similar coherent
effort.
The Fifth Generation Project (ICOT) is the brainchild of
Kazuhiro Fuchi of the Japanese government's Electro-Technical
Laboratory. ICOT, while supported by industry and government, is an
independent institution. Fuchi has borrowed about 40 engineers and
computer scientists, all under 35, for periods of three years, from
the leading Japanese computer companies. Thus the organization and
management of the project is as innovative as one could ask. With
only 40 people, the project is so far a tiny part of the total
Japanese computer effort, but it is scheduled to grow in subsequent
phases.
The project is planned to take about 10 years,during which
time participants will design computers based on "logic programming",
an invention of Alain Colmerauer of the University of Marseilles in
France and Robert Kowalski of Imperial College in London, and
implemented in a computer programming language called Prolog. They
want to use additional ideas of "dataflow" developed at M.I.T. and to
make machines consisting of many procesors working in parallel. Some
Japanese university scientists consider that the project still has too
much tendency to look to the West for scientific ideas.
Making parallel machines based on logic programming is a
straightforward engineering task, and there is little doubt that this
part of the project will succeed. The grander goal of shifting the
center of gravity of computer use to the intelligent processing of
knowledge is more doubtful as a 10 year effort. The level of
intelligence to be achieved is ill-defined. The applications are also
ill-defined. Some of the goals, such as common sense knowledge and
reasoning ability, require fundamental scientific discoveries that
cannot be scheduled in advance.
My own scientific field is making computer programs with
common sense, and when I visited ICOT, I asked who was working on the
problem. It was disappointing to learn that the answer was "no-one".
This is a subject to which the Japanese have made few contributions,
and it probably isn't suited to people borrowed from computer
companies for three years. Therefore, one can't be optimistic that
this important part of the project goals will be achieved in the time
set.
The Fifth Generation Project was announced at a time when the
Western industrial countries were ready for another bout of viewing
with alarm; the journalists have tired of the "energy crisis" - not
that it has been solved. Even apart from the recession, industrial
productivity has stagnated; it has actually declined in industries
heavily affected by environmental and safety innovations. Meanwhile
Japan has taken the lead in automobile production and in some other
industries.
At the same time, artificial intelligence research was getting
a new round of publicity that seems to go in a seven-year cycle. For
a while every editor wants a story on Artificial Intelligence and the
free lancers oblige, and then suddenly the editors get tired of it.
This round of publicity has more new facts behind it than before,
because expert systems are beginning to achieve practical results,
i.e. results that companies will pay money for.
Therefore, the Fifth Generation Project has received enormous
publicity, and Western computer scientists have taken it as an
occasion for spurring on their colleagues and their governments.
Apocalyptic language is used that suggests that there is a battle to
the death - only one computer industry can survive, theirs or ours.
Either we solve all the problems of artificial intelligence right away
or they walk all over us.
Edward Feigenbaum is the leader of one of the major groups
that has pioneered expert systems -- with programs applicable to
chemistry and medicine. He is also one of the American computer
scientists with extensive Japanese contacts and extensive interaction
with the Fifth Generation Project.
Pamela McCorduck is a science writer with a previous book,
Machines Who Think, about the history of artificial intelligence
research.
The Fifth Generation contains much interesting description
of the Japanese project and American work in related areas. However,
Feigenbaum and McCorduck concentrate on two main points. First,
knowledge engineering will dominate computing
by the 1990s. Second, America is in deep trouble if we don't
organize a systematic effort to compete with the Japanese in this
area.
While knowledge engineering will increase in importance, many
of its goals will require fundamental scientific advances that cannot
be scheduled to a fixed time frame. Unfortunately, even in the United
States and Britain, the hope of quick applications has lured too many
students away from basic research. Moreover, our industrial system
has serious weaknesses, some of which the Japanese have avoided. For
example, if we were to match their 40 engineer project according to
output of our educational system, our project would have 20 engineers
and 20 lawyers.
The authors are properly cautious about what kind of an
American project is called for. It simply cannot be an Apollo-style
project, because that depended on having a rather precise plan in the
beginning that could see all the way to the end and did not depend on
new scientific discoveries. Activities that were part of the plan
were pushed, and everything that was not part of it was ruthlessly
trimmed. This would be disastrous when it is impossible to predict
what research will be relevant to the goal.
Moreover, if it is correct that good new ideas are more likely
to be decisive in this field at this time than systematic work on
existing ideas, we will make the most progress if there is money to
support unsolicited proposals. The researcher should propose goals
and the funders should decide how he and his project compare with the
competition.
A unified government-initiated plan imposed on industry has
great potential for disaster. The group with the best political
skills might get their ideas adopted. We should remember that present
day integrated circuits are based on an approach rejected for
government support in 1960. Until recently, the federal government
has provided virtually the only source of funding for basic research
in computer technology. However, the establishment of
industry-supported basic research through consortia like the
Microelectronics and Computer Technology Corporation (MCC), set up in
Austin, Texas under the leadership of Admiral Bobby Inman, represents
a welcome trend--one that enhances the chances of making the
innovations required.HADDAD@SU-SCORE.ARPA (03/22/84)
From: Ramsey Haddad <HADDAD@SU-SCORE.ARPA>
[Forwarded from the Stanford bboard by Laws@SRI-AI.]
For anyone interested in these things, there is a review by John
McCarthy of Feigenbaum and McCorduck's "The Fifth Generation:
Artificial Intelligence and Japan's Computer Challenge to the World"
in the April 1984 issue of REASON magazine.
[The following is a copy of Dr. McCarthy's text, reprinted with
his permission. -- KIL]
The Fifth Generation - Artificial Intelligence and Japan's Computer
Challenge to the World - by Edward Feigenbaum and Pamela McCorduck,
Addison-Wesley Publishing Co.
Review of Feigenbaum and McCorduck - for Reason
Japan has replaced the Soviet Union as the world's second
place industrial power. (Look at the globe and be impressed).
However, many people, Japanese included, consider that this success
has relied too much on imported science and technology - too much for
the respect of the rest of the world, too much for Japanese
self-respect, and too much for the technological independence needed
for Japan to continue to advance at previous rates. The Fifth
Generation computer project is one Japanese attempt to break out of
the habit of copying and generate Japan's own share of scientific and
technological innovations.
The idea is that the 1990s should see a new generation of
computers based on "knowledge information processing" rather than
"data processing". "Knowledge information processing" is a vague term
that promises important advances in the direction of artificial
intelligence but is noncommittal about specific performance. Edward
Feigenbaum describes this project in The Fifth Generation - Artificial
Intelligence and Japan's Computer Challenge to the World, predicts
substantial success in meeting its goals, and argues that the U.S.
will fall behind in computing unless we make a similar coherent
effort.
The Fifth Generation Project (ICOT) is the brainchild of
Kazuhiro Fuchi of the Japanese government's Electro-Technical
Laboratory. ICOT, while supported by industry and government, is an
independent institution. Fuchi has borrowed about 40 engineers and
computer scientists, all under 35, for periods of three years, from
the leading Japanese computer companies. Thus the organization and
management of the project is as innovative as one could ask. With
only 40 people, the project is so far a tiny part of the total
Japanese computer effort, but it is scheduled to grow in subsequent
phases.
The project is planned to take about 10 years,during which
time participants will design computers based on "logic programming",
an invention of Alain Colmerauer of the University of Marseilles in
France and Robert Kowalski of Imperial College in London, and
implemented in a computer programming language called Prolog. They
want to use additional ideas of "dataflow" developed at M.I.T. and to
make machines consisting of many procesors working in parallel. Some
Japanese university scientists consider that the project still has too
much tendency to look to the West for scientific ideas.
Making parallel machines based on logic programming is a
straightforward engineering task, and there is little doubt that this
part of the project will succeed. The grander goal of shifting the
center of gravity of computer use to the intelligent processing of
knowledge is more doubtful as a 10 year effort. The level of
intelligence to be achieved is ill-defined. The applications are also
ill-defined. Some of the goals, such as common sense knowledge and
reasoning ability, require fundamental scientific discoveries that
cannot be scheduled in advance.
My own scientific field is making computer programs with
common sense, and when I visited ICOT, I asked who was working on the
problem. It was disappointing to learn that the answer was "no-one".
This is a subject to which the Japanese have made few contributions,
and it probably isn't suited to people borrowed from computer
companies for three years. Therefore, one can't be optimistic that
this important part of the project goals will be achieved in the time
set.
The Fifth Generation Project was announced at a time when the
Western industrial countries were ready for another bout of viewing
with alarm; the journalists have tired of the "energy crisis" - not
that it has been solved. Even apart from the recession, industrial
productivity has stagnated; it has actually declined in industries
heavily affected by environmental and safety innovations. Meanwhile
Japan has taken the lead in automobile production and in some other
industries.
At the same time, artificial intelligence research was getting
a new round of publicity that seems to go in a seven-year cycle. For
a while every editor wants a story on Artificial Intelligence and the
free lancers oblige, and then suddenly the editors get tired of it.
This round of publicity has more new facts behind it than before,
because expert systems are beginning to achieve practical results,
i.e. results that companies will pay money for.
Therefore, the Fifth Generation Project has received enormous
publicity, and Western computer scientists have taken it as an
occasion for spurring on their colleagues and their governments.
Apocalyptic language is used that suggests that there is a battle to
the death - only one computer industry can survive, theirs or ours.
Either we solve all the problems of artificial intelligence right away
or they walk all over us.
Edward Feigenbaum is the leader of one of the major groups
that has pioneered expert systems -- with programs applicable to
chemistry and medicine. He is also one of the American computer
scientists with extensive Japanese contacts and extensive interaction
with the Fifth Generation Project.
Pamela McCorduck is a science writer with a previous book,
Machines Who Think, about the history of artificial intelligence
research.
The Fifth Generation contains much interesting description
of the Japanese project and American work in related areas. However,
Feigenbaum and McCorduck concentrate on two main points. First,
knowledge engineering will dominate computing
by the 1990s. Second, America is in deep trouble if we don't
organize a systematic effort to compete with the Japanese in this
area.
While knowledge engineering will increase in importance, many
of its goals will require fundamental scientific advances that cannot
be scheduled to a fixed time frame. Unfortunately, even in the United
States and Britain, the hope of quick applications has lured too many
students away from basic research. Moreover, our industrial system
has serious weaknesses, some of which the Japanese have avoided. For
example, if we were to match their 40 engineer project according to
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