rainbow@ihuxe.UUCP (07/29/83)
North
S:K95
H:86
D:KJT7
C:9842
South
S:
H:AKQT752
D:AQ843
C:6
S W N E
1H 1S 1N 4S
5H 5S -- --
6H -- -- --
The play goes QS-KS-AS-2H, AH-2S-????. Plan the rest of the play?
You can assume 6S(or a lesser contract in spades) will be bid by East-West
as the final contract at most other tables, either to make or to sack. So
your line of play should be based on the expected results of that contract.
>From the bidding and play so far, there are two likely distributions for
the opponents hands:
1) W:5-0-3-5 E:5-4-1-3
2) W:5-0-4-4 E:5-4-0-4
If West had any more clubs he would have overcalled in clubs most likely
(which brings up another point, Do East-West play any two-suited cue-bids).
Unfortunately West will make 6S with either of the two hands so you can't
base your play on that. But this in itself is good news because now you
will get a good matchpoint result whether you make the contract or not. The
last thing to consider is the relative matchpoint difference of down 1 vs
down 2 vs making 6H. Down 1 and down 2 should be worth almost the same number
of matchpoints. But making 6H is important in beating all the North-South
pairs who were lucky enough to be playing a fish who can't make 12 tricks
in spades. So I agree with unc!bmh, play a low diamond to the Jack.
This also has two other small advantages. First, if the jack gets ruffed,
you'll beat the pairs in 6H dbl. Second, if the jack wins, you'll beat the
pairs in 5H who play it safe. Also, there are other possible though unlikely
distributions which allow you to make 6H like W:6-0-3-4 E:4-4-1-4.
Since this is the obvious choice of plays, I gather it is not the solution
the problem presenter had in mind. However I can only see one reason to
gracefully accept down 1. Hope everyone is playing 6H and goes down 2
when they try to make it. To me this is like totally silly. And even then
playing the Jack will get you an average board.
Let me know if anyone is interested in seeing how six spades makes with any
of the various possible hands.