rainbow@ihuxe.UUCP (08/09/83)
NORTH
S:J9
H:K4
D:7642
C:AQJT8
SOUTH
S:AQT87643
H:J76
D:A
C:4
Rubber bridge. South opens 4S which becomes the final contract. West leads
the KD.
A previous solution stated:
1) finesse the KC for a heart pitch. If it fails then...
2) force an entry into North via trumps for a heart pitch on the AC. If
East has the KS he wont be able to thwart your plans. If West has
the KS and plays a low heart then...
3) guess how to play the heart suit.
Each of the above possibilities has a 50% chance of succeeding, so you will
make your contract 7 out of 8 times.
The following proposed solution will make the contract 15 out of 16 times:
1) play a low heart towards the King. If East wins the Ace and plays a
spade to prevent you from obtaining a heart ruff, then...
2) win the AS. If the KS doesnt drop, then...
3) enter dummy with the AC and play a heart towards the Jack. If West wins
the Queen, then...
4) hope West doesnt have the KS to play preventing you from getting a
heart ruff.
Basically this line of play relies on one of two heart finesses working(75%
chance of success) or West not having King doubleton of spades(75% chance of
a different distribution occuring). So your contract will be set 1 out of
16 times with this line of play((1/4)*(1/4)).halle1@houxz.UUCP (08/09/83)
Actually, the line I suggested succeeds 15 out of 16 times, assuming you can guess right. At the table there are probably enough clues to enable you to guess right if possible, so the hearts are a 75% chance. Thus, this line works in slightly more cases than the other line. However, the other line is probably best anyway. Even though it is very slightly mathematically inferior, because you do not need to guess it is practically better.