[net.rec.bridge] bidding problem

ark@rabbit.UUCP (08/21/83)

IMPs, all vulnerable.
You are dealer, and pick up:

	S: AKQxx
	H: x
	D: Axx
	C: AQxx

You bid 1S.  Partner says 2S.  You now have your first problem.
You are definitely going to game but might want to investigate
slam.  You can make six if partner has a maximum and a club fit.
For better or worse, you decide to pretend you're making a game
try and bid 3C.  If partner says 3S you'll say 4S.  If partner
jumps to 4S, you'll have to think of something.

Anyway, partner bids 4C.  This means a maximum with a good
club fit.  You can now picture partner with Jxxx of spaces
and KJxx of clubs, so you can count 10 tricks.  You can surely
afford a cuebid below game, so you bid 4C.  Partner bids 4S.

You know, though, that partner must have something besides
the J of spades and KJ of clubs to justify his 2S bid,
probably the K of diamonds or the A or K of hearts.
You decide to make one more try and bid 5C.  Sure enough,
partner bids 5D, showing the King.  The auction so far has
been:

	1S	2S
	3C	4C
	4D	4S
	5C	5D

What do you do now?  Partner might have

	Jxxx
	xxx
	Kx
	KJxx

in which case 6S is virtually lay-down, or might have

	Jxxx
	xx
	Kxx
	KJxx

in which case 6S is virtually unmakeable.  Suggestions?

halle1@houxz.UUCP (08/21/83)

Yes, I have a suggestion.  Bid 6C.  All you need is a 4-1 break to
make it, regardless of partner's hand if your previous assumptions
are correct.  If he has only one heart, why was there no other bidding?
(Well, I suppose your opponents could be sane.)
Give up the 2 IMPS if need be.  It's better than losing lots if it
doesn't make.

laura@utcsstat.UUCP (Laura Creighton) (08/22/83)

My father and I had to work out what we would do if we came to the
conclusion that a given hand was either 'lay down' or 'virtually
unmakable'. We kept stats on about 400 of those hands, and discovered
that you lose more points by NOT bidding than by bidding cautiously!
Perhaps 400 was too small a set, but we were getting awfully tired
of writing it all down. The exception, is of course, if cautiously
you can make game, or a rubber, or something which has more value
than the extra points 'below the line'.  

Do other people's experience agree with this? In practice, it may
be too late for either my father or myself. My mother and my brother
both play cautiously. Father and I find playing with them less
fun than playing with each other (though more of a challenge. Do
you always bid a little high if you know your partner is bidding
low?). 

Father and I tend to beat my mother and my brother. Of course,
we also remember exactly which cards have been laid down, and
father can even remember the exact order (I'm not that good yet)
which contributes to our success.

laura creighton
utzoo!utcsstat!laura

halle1@houxz.UUCP (08/26/83)

a)IMPS		b)match points
Vul vs. non-vul, LHO deals.  What is your call after  4H-4S-7H-
with     S: KT84   H: 3   D: AQ82   C: KQJ	?

milla@cca.UUCP (Michael J. Massimilla) (08/28/83)

Aren't preempts fun?  Anyway, there are two ways 7 spades could be
bad news.  First, hearts could be 7-4-1-1.  Second, the 4 heart bidder
could have a side-suit ace.  Partner could easily bid 4 spades on
QJ9xxxx -- Kxxx Ax, RHO 7 hearts on -- Kxxxx xxx xxxxx, and your grand
has this one little problem.  So an immediate 7 spades seems a bit
too aggressive.  What about pass?  This would convey interest in a
grand but leave the choice to partner.  Hopefully, with AQxxxx --
Kxx Axxx, partner would bid.  Partner should appreciate the value
of three first-round controls plus the diamond king.  Could partner
go without the necessary controls, say on the 7-0-4-2 given above?
It's possible.  Finally, there is double.  This gives up on the grand
but avoids going minus.

In situations like this, where any action could be right, and all
of them have significant dangers, it is usually best to go middle-
of-the-road.  Pass will leave partner a decision which he will no
doubt get wrong some of the time; but there will also be times when
partner definitely knows what is right.  (e.g. with AQJxxxx x xx Axx
he doubles, and with AQJxxxxx -- Kx Axx he bids.)

IMP's versus matchpoints doesn't appear to be a strong issue here.
A slam swing's worth of IMPs hinge on whatever you do (results ranging
from +2210 to +700 to -100), so you want to find the best spot as
often as possible.  At matchpoints you have the same objective, since
(1) if the grand is making, +700 will be a terrible score
(2) if the grand is not making, -100 will be a terrible score.
Actually, you might be a little more aggressive at matchpoints since
if the grand is not making, you will lose to all the pairs who score
up +1430 no matter what you do.

At least, you can always argue in the post mortem that your pass
was right; partner's misguided (7 spade bid / double) cost you
the event.
				"milla"

ching@hp-pcd.UUCP (Chao Liu) (09/01/83)

#R:houxz:-45200:hp-pcd:30500016:000:920
hp-pcd!ching    Aug 31 09:02:00 1983

/***** hp-pcd:net.rec.bridge / houxz!halle1 /  7:47 am  Aug 29, 1983*/
"milla" makes several good, valid points, but I think for all his
discussion he comes up with the wrong answer.  Go back and read the
discussion in the original problem.  This answers some of milla's
objections.  You probably belong in 7, but it's hard to tell exactly
what is best.  But partner can't tell, either.  And would a pass
even be forcing?  I will not trust that it should be.

In any case, given the bidding so far, 7C, that's right, CLUBS, is
the proper contract.  It will make whenever 7S does, and will also
make whenever 7S doesn't.
/* ---------- */

A question to halle1:  I don't quite understand why you would bid 7C,
and why it will make whenever 7S does and also make whenever 7S doesn't.
What hand do you expect your partner holds?  Could you enlighten me?

--Ching-Chao Liu
  HP Portable Computer Division
  Corvallis, Oregon

rainbow@ihuxe.UUCP (09/02/83)

Holding KT84-3-AQ82-KQJ the bidding goes 4H-4S-7H-?. What do you do?    
Vul vs NVul. a)imps  b)matchpoints
  
First I'll assume the solution has nothing to do with calling a miss-deal
for holding only 12 cards, so I'll pretend I have another low card somewhere.
It makes little difference on the analysis which suit it is.
  
I've always disliked bidding problems. Probably because my partner always 
misinterprets my bids! Never mind that partner claims that I consistantly
make the wrong bids and convey the wrong information. Usually there are
a multitude of bids available and I get terribly confused. This time
even I can narrow the choices down to three which gives me a 33% chance of
guessing right. So I've gathered up my courage to speak up and give my
one cents worth.
  
Double seems obvious. How can my opponents possibly make their contract with
all my high cards? Its best I tell my partner this information right away.
But wait, didnt I just read something about a new convention? I didnt pay too
much attention because it seemed silly to bid a lot higher than what you
could possibly make. Probably doubled on top of it! Why would anyone want
to voluntarily give the opponents points? They called them preempts or
something. And my partner did make a bid on the 4 level vulnerable so he
must have a good hand. What are the opponents bidding on? I better bid 7S
to tell my partner I have a good hand too. But wait, what if we have a heart
loser? Partner will surely be upset with me. Why should we give the opponents
points after their outrageous bidding. Maybe I should double after all telling
my partner I dont think 7S can be made. Suddenly I've become terribly confused
once again. So, like always, after 32.5 seconds of mixed up thoughts, I meekly
make the following bid: "pass?" After all, how can I possibly convey the wrong
information with a pass. My partner should know by now that a pass by me means
I dont know what to do. Yes, partner will be very pleased with me this time!
He now has enough information to make the correct decision.
  
For the record, normally if the opponents sack at the 7 level over your six
level contract, a double denies control of their suit and a pass implies a 
void. But this is usually only after you have previously described your hand
and have signed off in the final contract. This time you haven't. Can partner
infer that your hand is good enough to bid 6S without competition? If so,
does the above situation apply? Maybe, but then again maybe not. Who knows?
Anyway, I personally would take the following view. In imps, I would double
for the following two reasons:
   1) tell partner I dont have heart control and to be careful because...
   2) the opponents should not bid 7H pushing us to 7S if they think we can
      make it. They should try to get the bidding passed out at 6S, so I
      would expect a bid of 6H if they had nothing.
  PS) by the way, I would pass with a heart void and never commit the hand to 7SIn matchpoints, I would pass for three reasons:
   1) Partner knows that with heart control and a reasonable hand I'd bid 7S
      because it pays to bid aggressively
   2) the opponents most likely have a total bust because they feel 6S is cold.
      If they had an outside ace they most likely will try to set 6S and only
      sack up to 6H. Why go for -700 when everyone else is -650 or +100.
   3) tell partner I have interest in 7S. A double would deny any interest
      at all. I would expect partner to bid 7S with heart control.
  
post-mortem: I've probably lost another partner.

halle1@houxz.UUCP (09/02/83)

Rob is right.  Your call should be DIRECTOR!!!!
However, since you found a small something on the floor when he came,
you better do something else.  Actually, Rob's suggestion that the
call be "pass???..." rather than a normal "pass" has merit.  It will
certainly get the top result.  It will also get you shot.

At IMPS, double is the standout.  Anything else is wrong, even if it
works.  At Match Points, who knows?  I think knowledge of your partner
and opponents is essential.  One point to consider.  You probably will
only beat them 500 if distribution is unkind.  Even 700 might not be enough.

I don't know the answer.  I only posed it to see other's ideas and
powers of observation.  (Yes, 12 cards was deliberate.)