milla@cca.UUCP (Michael J. Massimilla) (09/06/83)
It's the 8th round of the Flight A Swiss in the New England Fall Regional. You're in 6th place, with a shot at 2nd if you have a good match. The first two boards go well for you: you bid a tough slam and make it, then you beat the opponents in 3NT when they could have made 4S. Board three, no one vulnerable, you pick up AKxx KQJ xx 10xxx. RHO is the dealer and opens 3C. You and LHO both pass, and partner bids 3D. Pass by RHO, back to you. Your bid?
halle1@houxz.UUCP (09/06/83)
(I assume VP scoring by your statement of conditions. WL may change things.) Since you are (probably) well ahead, you want to avoid a disaster. On the other hand, you want to win by about 20-30 to get most of the points, so you don't want to give back much. (WL is so much easier here.) A pass avoids a big disaster, a NV game swing at worst (6IMPs I think). 3NT could pick up a lot, but it could also get killed; if clubs run, 500 at least. No other choice makes sense. (5D wont make.) If partner were stronger, he would have said something else. Even if partner has a club honor, there is no guarantee that you have 9 tricks. I would play it safe and pass. If you needed a swing, though, I'd bid.
milla@cca.UUCP (Michael J. Massimilla) (09/07/83)
Clarification of conditions: the event is scored in victory points. You need a 28-imp win for a blitz (20 VP's). Depending on the results of other matches, you might take second with as few as 15 VP's.
wallace@ucbvax.UUCP (09/10/83)
Actually, I would think the clubs are almost sure not to run unless partner has a void (in which case he would probably pull 3NT doubled). Consider: opener has seven, you have four to the 10, which leaves two between opener's partner and your partner. If partner has both the missing clubs, opener's partner will have no club to lead. If the clubs are split, they will block if either of them is an honor, no matter who has it. Only if opener has all four club honors will they run. Now, how likely is that? Well, for a random 1-1-7 distribution of the nine outstanding clubs, the odds that all four honors are in the seven card suit are: (7/9)*(6/8)*(5/7)*(4/6) = 5/18, less than one in three. Granted, you do have a little additional information (opener did bid three, lacking the 10), so it's not quite random (if he only has Q-J-9-x-x-x-x, he almost certainly has a side entry), I still think the odds are significantly in your favor if you gamble. Your spades and hearts look golden, and the doubleton diamond eases your fears of a notrump misfit. You don't know for sure that you are massively ahead (your partners at the other table could have dropped points, too), and it's early enough in the match that you could still have a disaster or two coming up. I gamble, and bid 3NT. Dave Wallace