[net.rec.bridge] followup hand 7,B1

rainbow@ihuxe.UUCP (09/16/83)

hand 7(B1):    South: S:AQJ74        S        W       N        E
                      H:AJ86         --       P       P        P   matchpoints
                      D:A            1S       P       4S       P    Vul vs Vul
                      C:AJ8          ??
  
The main question on this problem appears to be what are the chances for slam?
If they are over 50% you should be there. That decision probably depends on
the exact meaning of partners 4S bid. Unfortunately there is no more informationgiven. So you construct some possible hands: Kxxxx-x-Kxxx-xxx, Kxxxx-x-xxxx-Qxx,Kxxxx-Qxx-xxxx-x all of which make slam cold. Take away the outside honor
and slam is still a good bet with the right ten and/or nine spot. The only
type of hand you'll be in trouble on is K fifth of spades and garbage(or wasted
QD). So I have to disagree with a previous article and say that slam is a 
favorite to make.
  
With my regular partner, I would bid slam without a hesitation. We play
minisplinters so that rules out extra values(8-10). However we feel
there is no reason to bid 4S on K fifth and out for a minus score.
We would bid 2S(constructive by the way). We'll probably end up playing 3S
making since its unlikely the opponents will compete to the four level
(especial vulnerable with both being passed hands). If partner makes a 
game try I'll most likely accept. Picture these two hands:
     North  South                            North   South
     S:Axxxx S:Kxxxx                         S:Axxxx S:Kxxxx
     H:Axx   H:x                             H:Axx   H:x
     D:xx    D:xxxx                          D:xx    D:xxxx
     C:Axx   C:xxx                           C:AKx   C:xxx
     making 3S                               making 4S
 
So when my partner does bid 4S, I expect five spades, a singleton, and about
a good 5 to 7 high card points. Given that information I'm sure you have to 
agree slam is probably cold. And even without that information I think slam
is a good gamble.