prm@aplcen.UUCP (Paul McMullin APL x7823) (01/14/86)
N E S W (N-S VUL) 1c 1s(1) p 2nt p 3s(2) p 4s(3) (All Pass(4)): Opening lead, 7clubs. (Dummy), W: Ax Qx AJ9 S exposed: KJ8643 N exposed: 7c, 9c Qc, Ac You, E: KJT98x Jx Q8xx 2 (1): Let's not incite them with a pre-empt... I hate pre-empts (2): Don't have it (pass! pass! pass! Damn, where's telepathy when you need it?) (3): Best-hand-at-the-table syndrome... (4): (I wish I had pre-empted...) After calmly calling for the "small club" on the opening lead which loses to the Queen(!), you ruff the club Ace(!) continuation (while the person on your right gags...) Plan the play to take advantage of their goof (scoring IMPS).
desj@brahms.BERKELEY.EDU (David desJardins) (01/16/86)
In article <118@aplcen.UUCP> prm@aplcen.UUCP (Paul McMullin APL x7823) writes: > > (Dummy), W: Ax > Qx > AJ9 >S exposed: KJ8643 N exposed: >7c, 9c Qc, Ac > You, E: KJT98x > Jx > Q8xx > 2 The situation seems clear; North has three clubs and hence is 4423, 4333, or 3433. It is possible that you will be forced to lose a diamond, a spade, and a club, so you must avoid heart losers. So you cash KA of spades to draw South's trumps, and start pitching hearts on clubs. If North does not ruff, or ruffs with the queen, you pitch your second heart, and lose at most a club, a diamond, and a trump. If he ruffs small you overruff, cross to the board with the AD, and play another club pitching your heart. Note that if North refuses to ruff you plan to simply cash AD and continue the clubs. If North ruffs you have no problem with control, and if he lets you pitch two diamonds you are down to JT9 of trump and QD, and can hardly lose more than two tricks. -- David desJardins
rainbow@ihlts.UUCP (Robert) (01/17/86)
<Newsgroups: net.rec.bridge> <Subject: minor play problem>
N E S W (N-S VUL) IMPS
1c 1s p 2nt
p 3s p 4s
(Dummy), W: Ax
Qx
AJ9
S exposed: KJ8643 N exposed:
7c, 9c Qc, Ac
You, E: KJT98x
Jx
Q8xx
2
Opening lead 7C. North wins QC and continues with the A, south
following with the 9.
*****************************************************************
There is some info missing. What do they lead from three small?
More importantly, what is their opening no trump range?
I will assume they lead middle from three small and they open 1NT with 15-17.
LHO had three clubs, in particular 975.
RHO does not have both heart honors. Two reasons. RHO would have
cashed them before trying the AC. LHO signalled for hearts with the 9C.
If LHO has a heart honor, the KD is with RHO, else LHO has a negative dbl.
LHO is xx-xxxxx-xxx-xxx, x-xxxxxx-xxx-xxx, x-xxxxx-xxxx-xxx
RHO is xxx-xxxx-Kxx-AQT, xxxx-xxx-Kxx-AQT, xxxx-xxxx-Kx-AQT
Should I finesse spades? Let's see.
Can LHO have the AH? Very doubtful if holding a stiff spade because that
looks like a fine negative double. I would expect a negative dbl even
if holding two spades, AH, and 5+ hearts more often than not. I consider
this unlikely then.
So if RHO has the AH, that accounts for 13 points. No room for the QS.
So I anticipate LHO to be Qx-Kxxxx-xxx-xxx. Following through on this,
I cash two spades ending in dummy expecting the Q to drop. If it does I
run clubs to my hearts(pun intended) content, overruffing when necessary
and using the AD to continue(after drawing any possible remaining trumps).
If the QS doesn't drop, but spades break 3-2, I run clubs again and
use the AD to run some more after RHO ruffs(pitching hearts first)
If RHO shows up with four spades(unlikely in my opinion), I pitch one heart
on a club. Try another club overruffing RHO. AD. Another club pitching my
last heart as RHO ruffs with the QS(note RHO must ruff these clubs else
the hand is over if I pitch too many losers). Now I must tackle the diamond
suit for one loser from my hand, Q8x, opposite J9 with four to the KT
outstanding. Lets see what we know. LHO must have the AH else RHO had a 15
count. LHO had a stiff spade but couldn't find a call.
Is LHO x-Axxxx-xxxx-xxx or x-Axxxxx-xxx-xxx?
Is RHO Qxxx-Kxxx-Kx-AQT or Qxxx-Kxx-Kxx-AQT?
I find either hard to believe, but if I get this far and haven't made
the contract yet, I'll play for 3-3 diamonds. Only a hunch. If LHO is
bad enough not to find a negative double with either hand, then
LHO is bad enough to think they need both hearts and diamonds to make
a negative double. Hence LHO has only three diamonds.
Am I down 1?
Now, what happens if they open 16-18 point no trumps?
That means RHO most likely has QS, AH, KD, AQC. LHO only has the KH.
My above analysis indicates I think RHO is a heavy favorite
to hold the QS. Should I play for 3-2 spades with the Q onside?
I still have the same diamond guess guess if spades are 4-1.
Do I finesse? A definite no. If thats the position(spades 3-2, Q onside)
the above line works just as well. And the above line drops any honor
holding by LHO in spades. Once again I'll play for 3-3 diamonds if
necessary due to the failure to negative double with x-Kxxxx-xxxx-xxx.
Though I wouldn't be confident. I'd watch closely for a count signal by
LHO to maybe change my mind.
Robertdesj@brahms.BERKELEY.EDU (David desJardins) (01/22/86)
In article <118@aplcen.UUCP> prm@aplcen.UUCP (Paul McMullin APL x7823) writes: > > (Dummy), W: Ax > Qx > AJ9 >S exposed: KJ8643 N exposed: >7c, 9c Qc, Ac > You, E: KJT98x > Jx > Q8xx > 2 > > One point in the play of this hand may be of further interest, as it illustrates a simple but valuable application of bridge probabilities. After the club ruff, KA of spades, LHO showing out, J of clubs pitching a heart, club ruffed small by RHO and overruffed, diamond to the ace, club ruffed with the QS while you pitch a heart, heart return ruffed in your hand, the position will be as follows: W: -- Q J9 64 E: JT -- Q8x -- The question now is how to play the diamond suit for one loser. Obviously there are two possibilities, small to the J or small to the 9. Against good players the following inferences can be made: 1) RHO has a heart honor (or LHO would have led one). 2) LHO has a heart honor (or RHO would have played one at trick two). 3) RHO has the king of diamonds (if LHO had this, with five or six hearts to the ace or king, he would have made a negative double (or NFB)) Given that RHO holds the KD, the two lines may seem to have roughly the same chance of success. One looks for the TD to be onside; the other looks for the diamonds to break evenly. Let's compute the actual probabilities: Suppose no diamond honor dropped under the ace, or appears when you lead a small diamond toward the J9. Then RHO was dealt one of the following hands (where H represents either the ace or king of hearts): A: Qxxx B: Qxxx C: Qxxx D: Qxxx Hxxx or Hxx Hxx or Hx Kx KTx Kxx KTxx AQx AQx AQx AQx If he has (C) either play will work; if he has (D) neither play will work. The relevant hands here are (A) and (B). The number of possible hands of the two types (and thus their relative probabilities) may be computed as follows (assume spades and clubs are already determined): # of hands = (# ways to choose heart honor) x (# ways to choose heart spots) x (# ways to choose diamond spots) Pattern A: (2C1)(7C3)(3C1) = (2)(35)(3) = 210 hands Pattern B: (2C1)(7C2)(3C1) = (2)(21)(3) = 126 hands Thus hand A is 67% more likely than hand B, and so the 9 should be played from the board. At the table, it should be easy to see that RHO has only four unknown cards (apart from Qxxx/H/K/AQx) and LHO has eight unknown cards (he is known to hold only x/H/-/T9x), so of course the TD is much more likely to be with LHO. -- David desJardins
desj@brahms.BERKELEY.EDU (David desJardins) (01/29/86)
In article <11492@ucbvax.BERKELEY.EDU> I write: > One point in the play of this hand may be of further interest, as it >illustrates a simple but valuable application of bridge probabilities. Actually what it illustrates is that too much calculating can prevent you from looking closely enough at the hand... >After the club ruff, KA of spades, LHO showing out, J of clubs pitching a >heart, club ruffed small by RHO and overruffed, diamond to the ace, club >ruffed with the QS while you pitch a heart, heart return ruffed in your >hand, the position will be as follows: > > W: -- > Q > J9 > 64 > > E: JT > -- > Q8x > -- > >The question now is how to play the diamond suit for one loser. Obviously >there are two possibilities, small to the J or small to the 9. > (long analysis of probabilities) Unfortunately I seem to have gone astray at the "Obviously"; the 100% line is to lay down the QD. This loses only if one hand holds KTxx (and ducks), which is not possible since we are assuming that RHO holds the KD. Does the fact that no one pointed this out to me mean that nobody saw it, or that nobody is reading this stuff anyway? -- David desJardins