stevev@tekchips.UUCP (Steve Vegdahl) (12/20/83)
Well now that the NFL season is drawing to a close, and everyone has been confused by the tiebreakers, here's one of my favorite hypothetical situations. Let's say that with the season complete, save for a Monday night game between Philadelphia and Washington, the NFC standings are as follows: SF 13-3 Det 12-4 Was 11-4 LA 12-4 Min 9-7 Dal 11-5 NO 5-11 Chi 9-7 Phl 10-5 Atl 3-13 GB 6-10 StL 6-10 TB 3-13 NY 4-12 Additionally, Washington has beaten Dallas twice, who has in turn beaten Philly twice. Philly has beaten Washington once, and is about to play them on national TV. The three teams rank equally in all tiebreakers down to the first "net points" tiebreaker (which, I believe is within CONFERENCE); in this tiebreaker, Dallas has a 60-point lead over Philly, who has a 60-point lead over Washington. It is clear that SF, LA and Detroit have made the playoffs, so the THREE top teams in the East are fighting for TWO playoff spots. Clearly, if Washington wins or ties the Philly game, it wins the division, and allows Dallas in as the wild card. If Philly wins, however, all three teams end up with identical records, making Dallas the division winner (based on net points, assuming it didn't beat Washington by more than 60 points). The wildcard tiebreaker then pits the Skins and Eagles head-to-head, which won by Philly because it beat the Skins twice during the regular season. But what happens if the the Eagles beat the Skins by more than 60 points? In this case, they win the division (bases on net points), and the wildcard tiebreaker goes to Washington because it beat the Cowboys twice during the regular season. To summarize, then: Eagles/Skins result Division winner Wildcard ------------------- --------------- --------- Redskins win or tie Redskins Cowboys Eagles win by < 60 Cowboys Eagles Eagles win by > 60 Eagles Redskins As one can see, the Redskins have two options if they want to make the playoffs. The first is to beat or tie the Eagles. The second is to LOSE BIG! Assume that you are the Skins' coach, and the Eagles are beating you by four touchdowns with two minutes left to play. What is your best strategy for making the playoffs? Hint: the Eagles would be more than happy to beat you by a whopping score, as it would put the into the playoffs as division champs instead of just a wildcard. Steve Vegdahl Tektronix