kaufman@uiucdcs.UUCP (10/31/84)
A friend and I have come up with a simple but seemingly effective way for rating the NFL teams. Basically, it involves giving a team one point for each win by a team it has beaten (double if they've beaten them twice) and taking away one for each loss by a team it has lost to. This is based on the fact that a better team may lose to Miami, while a not-so-good one is more likely to lose to, say, a Minnisota. Through 9 weeks, there are some interesting results. Despite their inferior record, Washington is the highest rated team in the NFC East, due to the fact that among their losses were Miami and San Francisco with their combined one loss. San Diego is ranked surprisingly low, until you look closely at what they've done this season. They're 0-5 in their division, and 4-0 out of it. But those wins have come against three teams in the NFC Central (and not the Bears, either!) and Houston. They may have their hands full with the Colts this weekend. Buffalo, despite their being winless so far, is a point above Cleveland in the rankings. The two teams will be playing each other Sunday on the Bills' home field. Yet Cleveland is a 1 point favorite. You may wish to bet the house on the Bills. :-) On an unrelated note, when is the NFL going to look at the new geographic reality and move the Colts to the AFC Central? They could be cleaning up there! Ken Kaufman (uiucdcs!kaufman) "Lord knows, we need more statesmen."
kaufman@uiucdcs.UUCP (11/07/84)
[roughing the first line: number 67 - defense]
Here are the results of using the rating system described in the base
note, with my comments. Note that after careful thought, I decided that the
only fair way to regard the Detroit-Philadelphia tie (with respect to this
system) was to count it as half a win and half a loss for each team. By the
way, I hope none of you took my advice and bet the house on the Bills (that's
why I commented it with a ":-)" - Of course, if it weren't for that freak
fumble ...)
RANK TEAM RATING
1 Miami 39 One thing that jumped out at me is how
2 Denver 33 1/2 this system neatly bunches teams into
3 San Francisco 31 1/2 groups, based on the distribution of
4 LA Raiders 24 their ratings. At the top, Miami stands
5 Seattle 23 alone, thanks to their untarnished
6 Chicago 22 record. Denver and San Francisco have
7 New England 20 also established themselves as power-
8 Washington 19 1/2 houses who have all but guaranteed
9 NY Giants 14 playoff spots. The five teams from the
10 Dallas 11 1/2 Raiders to the Redskins are legitimate
11 St. Louis 9 1/2 contenders who are all worthy of playoff
12 LA Rams 8 appearances. The teams from the Giants
13 Pittsburgh 7 to the Chiefs all have solid teams, and
14 NY Jets 6 some will see action beyond Christmas.
15 Kansas City 5 San Diego, Philadelphia, and Green Bay
16 San Diego - 3 1/2 can be classified as anything from
17 Philadelphia - 6 1/2 mediocre to erratic. From New Orleans
18 Green Bay -11 1/2 down to Cleveland, we find the teams
19 New Orleans -19 that have been having just plain bad
20 Detroit -19 1/2 years (Minnesota is ranked above Atlanta
21 Indianapolis -20 1/2 since they beat them in head-to-head
22 Cincinnati -21 play. Speculation is welcome on whether
23 Minnesota -22 1/2 the two eternal losers should be ranked
24 Atlanta -22 1/2 together, or if Houston is in a class of
25 Tampa Bay -25 its own.
26 Cleveland -27
27 Buffalo -35 1/2
28 Houston -47
Of the 8 top teams, 5 are from either the AFC East or the AFC West. It's a
shame that there are only four playoff spots available for them. Miami and
Denver should be safe, but the race for the other two positions should be very
interesting. The records of Seattle, the Raiders, and the Patriots are
roughly inversely proportional to the strength of their remaining schedules.
The Pats are 6-4, but they have should-win games against Indianapolis
(twice), Buffalo, and Philadelphia, with fairly difficult challenges in St.
Louis and Dallas. Should they sweep their should-wins and split the other two
games (reasonable enough projection?), they'll wind up 11-5.
The 7-3 Raiders should be able to beat Detroit, Indianapolis, and Pitts-
burgh, but they also have games coming up with Seattle, Miami, and Kansas City,
who always play them tough. They must win two of those three, since at 11-5
they'd lose to New England on the tiebreaker due to conference record. They
are the kings of Monday Night Football, and Monday's game with Seattle may
be their season.
The Seahawks are 8-2, but they have two upcoming games with Denver, as
well as Monday's showdown. A game in Kansas City can't be taken too lightly
either; the Chiefs will be out for revenge. Seattle must win at least one
of its three big games - a tie with New England gives the nod to the Pats
due to head-to-head results - but they are more than capable of it.
I don't dare predict this one yet.
Ken Kaufman (uiucdcs!kaufman)