jeff@dciem.UUCP (Jeff Richardson) (12/11/84)
Well, so much for what I said last week about the Giants winning their division. They don't even have a chance now. However, I can't resist the opportunity to try again. Even if you don't believe my predictions, this should give you a complete run-down on what the playoff possibilities are. ********************************* AFC ********************************** Central Division: Pittsburgh wins the division unless they lose to the Raiders and Cincinnati beats Buffalo. In that case, Cincinnati wins the division because they split their head-to-head games, and the Bengals have a better record within the division (Cinci is 5-1; Pittsburgh is 3-3). The team that doesn't win the division will miss the playoffs. My pick: Cincinnati, even if there's nothing at stake when the Raiders play Pittsburgh. (The Raiders will know by then whether they still have a chance at home field. see below.) Western Division: The winner of the Denver-Seattle game wins the division. If it's a tie, Seattle wins the division because they won their other game against Denver. My pick: Seattle. Home Field in Conference Final: Miami is guaranteed home field (assuming they make it to the conf. final) if they beat Dallas. If they lose, they'll still get home field if Denver & Seattle tie, or if Seattle wins because Miami's conference record (10-2) will be better than Seattle's (9-3). If Miami loses and Denver wins, I think Denver gets the home field because their conference records will be the same (10-2), and I think the next tie-breaking criterion is record against common opponents. Denver is 6-0 against their common opponents (New Eng., Buffalo, Raiders & San Diego) while Miami is only 4-2. My pick: Miami will beat Dallas, so they'll get home field regardless of who wins the AFC West. Wild-Card: The wild-card teams will be the Raiders and the loser of the Denver- Seattle game (or Denver if their game is tied). If Denver loses to Seattle, then the Broncos will host the wild-card game no matter what the Raiders do because Denver beat the Raiders twice in the regular season. However, if Seattle loses and the Raiders beat Pittsburgh, the Raiders host the game because they split their head-to-head games, they'll have the same divisional record (I don't think divisional record applies in breaking ties for wild-card spots anyway, even when the teams are in the same division.), and the Raiders will have a better conference record. (The Raiders will be 9-3; Seattle will be 8-4). My pick: The Raiders will beat Pittsburgh, but they'll have to go to Denver for the wild-card game. ************************************* NFC ********************************** East Division: If Washington wins or ties against St. Louis, they win the division, but if they lose, St. Louis gets the title because they will have swept the two games against Washington and split against the Giants and Dallas, but they'll have the best divisional record. (The divisional records will be St.Louis 6-2, Giants 5-3, Washington 4-4, Dallas 3-5 if St.Louis beats Washington.) My pick: Washington. Wild-Card: Two of the Rams, the Giants, Dallas and the loser of the Washington-St. Louis game will be the wild-card teams, and the one that's ahead will be the home team for the wild-card game. The possibilities are too numerous to list separately, so I'll just say where each team stands with respect to each of the tie-breaking criteria. Head-to-head record is the first criterion. Here's how they stand: RAMS: 1-0 vs St.Louis; 1-0 vs Giants; 0-1 vs Dallas, 0-0 vs Wash. GIANTS: 1-1 vs St.Louis; 0-1 vs Rams; 2-0 vs Dallas, 1-1 vs Wash. WASH.: 0-0 vs Rams; 1-1 vs Giants; 2-0 vs Dallas. ST.LOUIS: 0-1 vs Rams; 1-1 vs Giants; 1-1 vs Dallas. DALLAS: 1-1 vs St.Louis; 1-0 vs Rams; 0-2 vs Giants, 0-2 vs Wash. Next, it goes to conference record. The Rams, Washington and St.Louis will only be involved in a wild-card tie-breaker if they lose this week, so I've added losses to their conference records: RAMS: 7-5 DALLAS: 7-5 WASHINGTON: 7-5 GIANTS: 7-6 plus whatever they do Saturday against New Orleans ST. LOUIS: 6-6 If Washington and the Rams are tied with each other but not with Dallas, it will come down to the record against common opponents, which are Dallas, San Francisco, the Giants, Atlanta and St.Louis. Washington will get the nod because they'll be 4-4 while the Rams will be only 3-4. My picks: St.Louis and Dallas will both lose this week (especially if Miami needs to beat Dallas to get home field in the AFC final, see above), but the Giants will win, which means the Rams will host the Giants in the wild-card game, regardless of whether they beat San Francisco. -- Jeff Richardson, DCIEM, Toronto (416) 635-2073 {linus,ihnp4,uw-beaver,floyd}!utcsrgv!dciem!jeff {allegra,ihnp4,linus,decvax}!utzoo!dciem!jeff