devine@asgb.UUCP (12/14/84)
Senario: It's fourth down and a loooong way to a first down. What do you do? The usual choice is to punt, but how about sending several (or more) receivers to a spot and attempt a pass? The results of selecting such a "mad-bomber" choice are: 1. one of your receivers DOES catch -- first down 2. a defender catches it -- same as a punt (in fact the results may be better because there may be no return) 3. nobody catches it -- no big problem if the line of scrimmage is not too bad (obviously you don't attempt a kamakazi (spelling?) pass within an sight of the endzone) Football is a game of percentages (deep!). Has anybody checked odds of this strategy? It would certainly liven up the game. I hate punts; they are so predictable. Bob Devine
kovalsky@spp2.UUCP (12/15/84)
> Senario: It's fourth down and a loooong way to a first down. > What do you do? The usual choice is to punt, but how about sending > several (or more) receivers to a spot and attempt a pass? > > The results of selecting such a "mad-bomber" choice are: > 1. one of your receivers DOES catch -- first down > 2. a defender catches it -- same as a punt (in fact the > results may be better because there may be no return) > 3. nobody catches it -- no big problem if the line of > scrimmage is not too bad (obviously you don't attempt > a kamakazi (spelling?) pass within an sight of the > endzone) > > Football is a game of percentages (deep!). Has anybody checked > odds of this strategy? It would certainly liven up the game. I > hate punts; they are so predictable. > > Bob Devine Probably the reason not many teams try the long bomb on 4th and long is because the statistics for the 3 choices above are probably something like: 1. Complete Pass 10% 2. Interception 1% 3. Incomplete 89% The reason the interception rate would be low is precisely the reason you state: it would be like a punt, so in ALMOST ALL cases a coach would tell his defensive backs to BAT THE BALL DOWN, not catch it. It would take a mental error (or lots of run-back room) for a player to intercept on 4th and long. Given that most of the time it would lead to an incomplete (or sack, one choice you didn't mention), it is not surprising to see teams punt in this situation. If they have a long yardage situation and they give up the ball, there is a good chance that the line of scrimmage is in their own territory. It may be boring to punt, but it's almost always the right thing to do. Now, in a 4th and short yardage situation, that's a whole different story... ----- Bruce Kovalsky ..trwrb!trwspp!spp2!kovalsky
dcm@busch.UUCP (Craig Miller) (12/17/84)
> 1. one of your receivers DOES catch -- first down I guess it's possible, but the percentages are against you here, unless of course, your last name is Flutie... :-) There's a definite possibility that by the time the ball gets there, there are more defenders than receivers waiting for it... > 2. a defender catches it -- same as a punt (in fact the > results may be better because there may be no return) How many defensive backs would be dumb enough to catch it? Most (if they were thinking) would knock it down and take the good field position they would have by taking over possession at the line of scrimmage... Then again, we are assuming that they can all think... :-( > 3. nobody catches it -- no big problem if the line of > scrimmage is not too bad (obviously you don't attempt > a kamakazi (spelling?) pass within an sight of the > endzone) Well, if the line of scrimmage wasn't that bad, how about a field goal? If the ball is outside field goal range, this usually means it's in pretty good field position for the other team... Now, if the ball was between, let's say, their 35 and midfield, then maybe it's worth the chance... But, would you rather have your defense trying to stop them at midfield or on their 20? Giving them the ball at midfield is putting alot of pressure on your defense, right? And, if the ball is anywhere else, the decision to punt or not is *almost* automatic. (within their 35: try a field goal or go for the first, within your territory: punt - of course these may change according to situation, but not by much...) Oh well. Any comments on the Redskin/Cardinal game? Cardinals did put up a respectable 2nd half... -- Craig Miller ..!ihnp4!we53!busch!dcm The Anheuser Busch Companies; St. Louis, Mo. "Unix(tm): it's not just a job, it's fun."
pellegri@ittral.UUCP (12/20/84)
What about the odds of offensive pass interference? Then its 4th and even longer to go. If the ball hits the ground its first and ten for the other team. If it was such a long way to go for the first down, chances are the other team will now have pretty good field position. A punt is less risky (provided the punter has good blocking) and there's always the chance for a fumble, especially if there is no fair catch called. The ball can also be "downed" deep into the punted-to teams territory. No defender will intercept on fourth and long unless there is a chance for a terrific run-back (like for a touchdown). It is better to simply bat the ball away and let his offense take over with the ball 20, 30, 40 or more yards up the field, first and ten.