ekblaw@uiucdcs.CS.UIUC.EDU (11/26/85)
Well, we're approaching the end of the season. I always seem to notice this when the Thanksgiving games approach. It's that time of the year, so I must be on time. My topic today is twofold. I will be talking about the Thanksgiving games later. Right now I'd like to talk about a team who has a good shot at a playoff bid, but has been there only twice before in the last ten years. I'd like to talk about the New England Patriots. Despite their loss in overtime (seventh or eight time they've lost in overtime. They really seem to be jinxed in that department!) on Sunday, they are having a great season. They are 8:4 overall and 5:1 in their division! Considering the powerful teams in the AFC East division, that is quite an accomplishment! But how good are their chances? Can they take the division title? Can they finally win a game in the playoffs (in both their two previous appearances they lost their first game)? How far can they go? They can still win the divisional title, no question about that. They only have one really tough game remaining, a Monday bout against Miami in Miami. The Jets, who presently lead the division, have two tough games ahead of them -- a Thnaksgiving Day battle against Detroit and an encounter with the unbeatable Bears! Miami, who is tied with New England, also have two tough games ahead of them. They play the Bears next week and then play the Patroits two weeks later. If the Patriots win all of their remaining games and both Miami and the Jets lose both of their tough games, the Patriots are the undisputed AFC EAst champs. Even if they lose to Miami they can still win. To do that, the Jets must lose both of theirs and Miami lose to the Bears. The problem is the two Jets losses. If the Jets lose only one of those two games, the Patriots MUST beat Miami in order to win the division. Then, both the Jets and Patriots would have 12:4 records, but the Patriots would have a better divisional record (Jets have already lost two divisional games), so the Patriots would win the division. Can the Patriots go as a wildcard even if they can't win the division? There are two things that have to occur for that to happen: 1. the Patriots must get as good or better overall record as the Dolphins (maybe the Bears can help with this?), and 2. the AFC West must only give one wildcard team. This is beginning to look likely, as Seattle is going down. If the Seahawks don't get back on track, the AFC playoff teams will be the Broncos, the RAiders, the Jets, the Patriots/Dolphins [depending on the result of 1.], and the AFC Central champion (that is still up in the air!). All of this means that the Patriots stand a good chance for a playoff berth. Now, what to do with it! Can they win their first game? Maybe. If they are only a wildcard, they will play either the Broncos or the Raiders. If it is at New England (still too early to tell), I figure that they can beat the Broncos, but the Raiders will be tough. If the AFC West has the home field, I don't think that the Patriots can do it. Now, if they win the division, they will probably play the wildcard team (the AFC West champ looks to have a better record/stats, so they would get the weak AFC Central champ). This will most likely be the Jets, though the Raiders might do it. If the Jets play the Broncos, it's the Jets. Anyway, it will be played in New England, and the Patriots will beat the Jets there. They might even beat the Raiders there, so they stand a chance. Now, if they play the AFC Central champ at home, it's a win for the Pats. What does all this mean? It looks like the Patriots have a better chance of winning their first playoff game if they win the division. Thus, they are hoping for the Bears to beat their two AFC East opponents and the Patriots want a win against Miami. Maybe, but maybe not. T H A N K S G I V I N G D A Y G A M E S Once again, Dallas has the late game on Thanksgiving. Who's to win? Dallas, of course! Look at the figures: 1. They play at home. 2. It is Thanksgiving, and the Cowboys haven't lost Thanksgiving in over ten years! 3. They play the Cardinals, who are struggling right now. Let's face it, it's a Dallas win! Now, what about Detroit? Can they beat the mighty Jets? I think they might. Detroit may only have a 6:6 record, but alot of that is due to NFC CEntral plays (2:4 record there). Detroit is a team that has really played well against the tough out-of-conference opponents. Look at their track record this year: Week 2- plays Dallas at home- beats them 26:21 Week 7- plays the 49ers at home-beats them 23:21 Week 8- plays Miami at home- beats them 31:21 So what I mean? It's a trend, and one I don't think will end so soon. My pick: Detroit 24, Jets 21 ! No matter who wins or loses, though, this will be an exciting Thanksgiving. I wish all of you the best during this festive holiday, and may all of you be home with your fanmily during this important occassion. Thank you. NFL Ace