jeff@hpcnoe.UUCP (12/17/85)
After week 15 in the NFL, an interesting playoff picture emerges in
the AFC central:
1. If Cincinnati and Pittsburgh both win and Cleveland looses,
then all three teams are tied (with 8-8) and Cincinnati goes
to the playoffs (virtue of a three way tie breaking rules).
2. If Cincinnati wins and Pittsburgh and Cleveland looses, then
Cleveland and Cincinnati will tie (with 8-8) and Cleveland
will go to the playoffs (virtue of a two way tie breaking rules).
Does anyone know the details of these tie breaking rules which made
this possible? However the AFC Central is decided, it is going to
be a shame to see someone with an 8-8 or 9-7 record go to the playoffs
while a team with 10-6 or 11-5 record stays home.
-- Jeff Wuboucher@hsi.UUCP (Keith Boucher) (12/20/85)
> > After week 15 in the NFL, an interesting playoff picture emerges in > the AFC central: > > 1. If Cincinnati and Pittsburgh both win and Cleveland looses, > then all three teams are tied (with 8-8) and Cincinnati goes > to the playoffs (virtue of a three way tie breaking rules). > 2. If Cincinnati wins and Pittsburgh and Cleveland looses, then > Cleveland and Cincinnati will tie (with 8-8) and Cleveland > will go to the playoffs (virtue of a two way tie breaking rules). > > Does anyone know the details of these tie breaking rules which made > this possible? However the AFC Central is decided, it is going to > be a shame to see someone with an 8-8 or 9-7 record go to the playoffs > while a team with 10-6 or 11-5 record stays home. > > -- Jeff Wu The following steps are used to break division ties in the NFL: 1. Head-to-head competition record among the clubs. 2. Record in all division games. 3. Record in all conference games. 4. Record in games against common opponents. 5. Best net point average in division games. 6. Best net point average in conference games. 7. Strength of schedule 8. Best net touchdowns in all games. 9. Coin Toss If two clubs remain after a third club is eliminated after any step, then the tiebreak procedure goes back to step 1. For the AFC Central race this year, if Cincinnati, Cleveland, and Pittsburgh all end up at 8-8 then Cincinnati wins based on their 3-1 record against Pittsburgh and Cleveland. Cleveland was 2-2 and Pittsburgh was 1-3. If Cincinnati and Cleveland tie at 8-8 and Pittsburgh ends up 7-9 then Cleveland wins based on better conference record of 7-5 vs. 6-6 for Cincinnati. (Both have a 4-2 division record and they split their two games). I do not believe that steps 6-9 have ever been needed to break ties and the only example of a division being decided by step 5 that I can think of was the 1980 NFC East Title between Dallas and Philly which Philly won based on a 4.25 net point advantage in division games. It is interesting to note that Dallas and Philly ended up playing in the NFC Championship Game that year. As far as the fairness of allowing a 9-7 or 8-8 team go to the playoffs while a 10-6 or 11-5 team goes home, that is the way it is set up. The Broncos, Jets, and Patriots all knew this at the start of the season. The same situation exists in hockey for teams like the Hartford Whalers who had more points than some of the teams in the playoffs last year. Keith Boucher HSI New Haven, CT
franka@mmintl.UUCP (Frank Adams) (12/25/85)
In article <288@hsi.UUCP> boucher@hsi.UUCP (Keith Boucher) writes: >The following steps are used to break division ties in the NFL: > > 1. Head-to-head competition record among the clubs. > 2. Record in all division games. > 3. Record in all conference games. > 4. Record in games against common opponents. > 5. Best net point average in division games. > 6. Best net point average in conference games. > 7. Strength of schedule > 8. Best net touchdowns in all games. > 9. Coin Toss I always thought that number 7 should be number 1. If the object is to get the best team into the playoffs, this is the best way to do it. I believe that, statistically (under reasonable assumptions), the winner in head-to-head competition between two teams with the same record and the same opponents is more often the worse team than the better one. (This is because a single event, A beating B, offsets two events: X beating A and B beating X, in reaching the same final record.) Now I am not advocating that number 1 should be turned around -- just that it should be downgraded in importance. Of the others, 5, 6, and 8 tend to favor high scoring teams (14-3 is a more decisive victory than 42-28); they also have the undesirable side effect of encouraging teams to pile on points. Number 4 is probably the best of the rest. So I would probably reorder these in the order: 7, 4, 2, 3, 1, 5, 6, 8, 9. (9 is clearly a last resort.) Any other opinions? Frank Adams ihpn4!philabs!pwa-b!mmintl!franka Multimate International 52 Oakland Ave North E. Hartford, CT 06108
dpb@philabs.UUCP (Paul Benjamin) (12/30/85)
> In article <288@hsi.UUCP> boucher@hsi.UUCP (Keith Boucher) writes: > >The following steps are used to break division ties in the NFL: > > > > 1. Head-to-head competition record among the clubs. > > 2. Record in all division games. > > 3. Record in all conference games. > > 4. Record in games against common opponents. > > 5. Best net point average in division games. > > 6. Best net point average in conference games. > > 7. Strength of schedule > > 8. Best net touchdowns in all games. > > 9. Coin Toss > > I always thought that number 7 should be number 1. If the object is to > get the best team into the playoffs, this is the best way to do it. I > believe that, statistically (under reasonable assumptions), the winner > in head-to-head competition between two teams with the same record and > the same opponents is more often the worse team than the better one. > (This is because a single event, A beating B, offsets two events: X beating > A and B beating X, in reaching the same final record.) This is true if the two teams had the same record against the same opponents, as you state. However, this is rarely the case. For example, in the AFC Central, where all this was pertinent, if Cleveland and Cincinnati had tied at 8-8, they did not have exactly the same opponents this year. Often, two teams in the same division face different opponents in the same conference. And if their division is playing a five-team division in the other conference, they each play four of those teams. Thus, they could face different opponents from that division. Another minor complication is that even when they play the same teams, often one will play a team at home, and the other will play that team on the road. This can sometimes be a very different proposition (e.g., Detroit). So it seems to me to leave it as it is. Let the teams decide by playing each other.
bd@peora.UUCP (Bernie Dougan) (01/03/86)
> And if their division is playing a five-team division >in the other conference, they each play four of those teams. Thus, they >could face different opponents from that division. That's not true. The top 4 teams (from the previous year) in each division play the top 4 teams of a division in the other conference. The 5th place teams play both 5th place teams from the other conference but do not play any other inter-conference games. -- Bernie Dougan CONCURRENT Computer Corp (a Perkin-Elmer Company) Southern Development Center 2486 Sand Lake Road Orlando, Florida 32809 (305)850-1040