ryan@fremen.DEC (DTN 264-8280 MK01-2/E25) (01/08/86)
The more I think about it, the more confident I am. Patriots 34, Dolphins
20.
A. The Pats beat Miami by 4 at home, and outplayed them in Miami only to
lose on one careless throw. They came closer to beating Miami in the Orange
Bowl than any other team, including the Bears.
B. Eason hasn't made a careless throw since then, and will be careful not to
on Sunday. Although I'd actually like to see him take more chances (see
below)...
C. The Pats didn't have Pete Brock the last time in the Orange Bowl - this
time James will have bigger holes and Eason will have better protection.
D. If James could gain 100 yards against the Raiders, think of what he'll do
to the mediocre Dolphin line.
E. The Raiders' cornerbacks may have been capable of containing Fryar and
Morgan; the Dolphins' aren't (which of course will help the running game).
F. Over the last three years no team has been as successful at keeping
Marino at a merely human performance level as the Patriots.
G. You can bet Berry and Rust will find some useful things in the Browns
game films.
H. The Patriots are still playing better and better - right now they've got
momentum and emotion on their side. They have confidence that they can win,
and for good reason.
I. They've beaten the spread several (thirteen?) weeks in a row - no
championship-level team has ever been so consistently under-estimated. Can
you believe Pete Axthelm? He does a feature on how the Patriots now have
"heart", and turns around and picks the Raiders to beat a five point spread!
NOBODY gives them enough credit! However, I think the Dolphins are the least
likely team to under-estimate the Patriots - they know full well they'll
have to be at the top of their game to win Sunday. I really think the Bears
have a better chance to beat the Dolphins than they do the Patriots, because
they'll take the Dolphins more seriously and they owe the Dolphins one.
My recommendations to Berry (who will probably prove why he's AFC Coach of
the Year and I'm a software engineer) are a defensive game plan combining
the best elements of the plan they used for the Monday game and what the
Browns did on Saturday. Offensively I'd finally go for some surprises. Most
teams establish the run to set up (and win with) the passing game. With the
Patriots' great running game, I'd go the other way. Hit a couple of long
passes to Fryar and Morgan early, and James will make big gains all day as
the linebackers get caught backpedaling. Use the tight ends a little more,
too. Hey, and I'd love to see that flea-flicker again! It's a shame they
used that shotgun running play so effectively, now the Dolphins will be
ready for it (but that'll put some hesitation into their defense when the
Pats use the shotgun... Berry may be smarter than I thought!).
They'll prove they're the best team in the AFC on Sunday (and don't try to
claim it's a fluke or luck next Monday - you don't win three games in a row
on the road against the three best other teams in the conference, two of
whom are notoriously good at home, with luck). The reasons the best team in
the conference didn't get any home playoff games are:
1. A 2-3 start, before the defense came together and while Eason was
struggling. The Patriots team that is 11-2 since is significantly better
than the one that began the season.
2. A tough schedule - the Jets and Patriots each played 7 games against
playoff-bound teams. No other playoff team had to face more than five.
When you come right down to it, the Patriots will win because they have the
better team.
Mike Ryan
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