stevev@tekchips.UUCP (Steve Vegdahl) (01/20/86)
Regarding comments that I have seen on the net regarding the Bears being a 10-or-so point favorite, and how they should not be favored by that much: It is my strong impression that when a bookie sets a point spread, his intent is not to predict the outcome of the game, but rather to predict the "betting median". That is to say, he wants to set the spread so that half the bets are made for one team, and half for the other, thereby putting himself in a no-lose situation, considering that the bets he makes are (from his perspective) better than even-money. One reason for the somewhat large point spread may have been a perception on the part of Las Vegas that more Chicago fans would place bets on the game than New England fans; they reasoned that making the spread as high as 10 points would "even out" the bets by: * encouraging Patriot fans to bet * discouraging Bear fans from betting, or even enticing them to take the points and bet against their team * increasing the percentage of "neutral" fans who bet on the Patriots Let's assume that at the 10-point spread, bets are indeed split 50-50, and that the Pats win by 14 points. Let's further hypothesize that after the game, a Patriot fan goes up to the oddsmaker who set that spread and tells him, ``Boy, you sure blew that one. You were wrong by 24 points.'' The response of the oddsmaker would likely be something like, ``Yes, but I was right by 2-million dollars''. If Pats fans really think that the spread is ridiculous, they should bet against it. If enough Pats fans do this, the spread will be adjusted. If you are not inclined to bet on the game for whatever reason (moral, inconvenient), just sit back and be glad that you won't be losing any money on the game. Steve Vegdahl Computer Research Lab. Tektronix, Inc. Beaverton, Oregon
mykes@3comvax.UUCP (Mike Schwartz) (01/22/86)
You overlook one point: Are there any New England fans out there willing to take fewer than 10 points? If there are, I have a couple of bridges for sale... The bookies also have to entice people to bet on a team that is not favored. They do this by making the spread high enough!