keithl@sri-unix (11/29/82)
Dense-pack or not, orbital defense systems will sooner or later make any
ICBM system worthless. Space lasers may be too big, missile interceptor
platforms may be too slow, but sooner or later some smart cookie is
going to figure out a way to blow up ICBMs during launch, when they are
impossible to hide and loaded with explosive fuel.
<imagination on>
Imagine 6 million little rocket interceptor packages, each containing about
200 grams of solid fuel and 100 grams of VHSIC-style circuitry, with solar
cells, battery, a lens, CCD imager, small receiver, etc., weighing about 500
grams total. World War III is announced in such a way as to turn these
little packages on, in heat-seeking mode. An ICBM boosting to 5000 m/s at
5 g's will need about two minutes to do so, leaving an infrared trail
visible for hundreds of kilometers. Our little interceptor has up to
500 meters per second delta v, allowing it to "get" ICBMs in an area of
perhaps 10000 square kilometers during that 2 minute boost. If we have
100 shuttle loads of these things in orbit, and they are randomly distributed,
that's about 100x coverage of the surface of the Earth (the redundant coverage
is needed to counteract dense pack style salvo launches). If these little
guys cost $3000 each (we're making 6 million, so they should be cheap)
the whole system would probably be cheaper than the MX.
The interceptors probably can't tell the difference between a "good guy" ICBM
and a "bad guy" (I find it difficult myself) so if we orbited such a system
we'd be stopping ICBM wars in general. Tough for the Nuke Moscow folks.
Cruise missiles could get through, but a war that takes hours rather than
minutes would be easier to call off. There will be a small risk of getting
hit by an inert interceptor during a space mission passing through interceptor
orbital altitude (I figure about 1 in 10,000 for a shuttle sized vehicle),
but I think the risk is probably worth it.
<imagination off>
Okay, gang, let's see the flames! Let's show the defense folks that we
really CARE about war!
Keith Lofstrom
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