trc@houti.UUCP (06/23/83)
A new (and fun) topic! What will be the effects of robotics and advanced automation upon society? What problems will be created? Should "political solutions" be found for them, or will they solve themselves? Many futurists have predicted that robotics will cause unemployment by taking away jobs. Robots and automation will replace most all "blue-collar" type jobs, and reduce the number of required "white-collar" workers. Others say that new jobs will be created by robotics and the increased productivity it entails. Some take a middle ground - that it is possible for new jobs to be created, but that it will not happen naturally. They believe that it will be necessary for the government to force businesses to re-educate displaced workers. Suppose we take a "worst case", of extremely rapid introduction of robots? Perhaps one lands in a spaceship, turns itself over to IBM or AT&T, and proceeds to build copies of itself for them. As a result of robotics, within a very few years, robots replace practically all "blue collar" employees of all fields - mining, manufacturing, farming, etc. The ranks of the white collar employees are cut drastically, leaving only decision makers. Engineers and scientists are not directly affected, but if there is a huge depression as a result of the robots, they too will be cut. The robots are perfectly passive - they will do anything they are instructed to do, but will never initiate action or think creatively. They can be made from presently available parts, so that they are the only new technology being introduced. Overall, lets suppose that maybe 10% of the working population is still employed. Suppose each only has savings sufficient to last 1 year unemployed. In capitalistic nations, lets suppose that about 1% benefit directly from investments in roboticized industries. These few will range from being just able to support themselves to being richer than the richest people in history. (Assume this is based on pre-robot prices and initial post robot profits. This may change, of course, due to competitive pressures.) What are the effects? If there are problems, how are they solved? What would be the differences between the results, problems, and solutions in, say Russia (totalitarian), China (communist), France (socialist), the US (mixed economy), and a hypothetical laissez-faire capitalist country. Will un-industrialized nations be affected? What will be the long range effects in each case? Tom Craver houti!trc
bill@utastro.UUCP (07/03/83)
***** A new (and fun) topic! What will be the effects of robotics and advanced automation upon society? What problems will be created? Should "political solutions" be found for them, or will they solve themselves? ... What are the effects? If there are problems, how are they solved? What would be the differences between the results, problems, and solutions in, say Russia (totalitarian), China (communist), France (socialist), the US (mixed economy), and a hypothetical laissez-faire capitalist country. Will un-industrialized nations be affected? What will be the long range effects in each case? ***** I have left out most of this article because it is really asking another question. However, we are already faced with a rather serious problem, with robots already "in place". I am speaking of the robots that control nuclear weapons. Yes, "ours" are under positive control of humans, so they say, and we can hope that the same is true of Soviet weapons. However, events seem to be propelling the world towards a "launch on warning" principle, which will have very little human interaction. Is this what we want? How can it be prevented? How can we ensure that the robots we already have in place don't destroy us by our own lack of wisdom in respect of them? I bring this up because it is a serious problem that we still have time to do something about. Bill Jefferys Astronomy Dept University of Texas Austin TX 78712