[net.politics] A Missile Epistle

mmt@dciem.UUCP (Martin Taylor) (11/21/83)

Given that a strategic nuclear force of some kind is necessary
for the foreseeable future, Michael Turner's idea of basing the
missiles in densely populated areas is the most sensible
suggestion in a long time. All the reasons he states are valid.

I doubt very much it would be possible politically, though. These
things have "radiation", and must therefore be kept away from people.
Perhaps they aren't as bad as nuclear power stations, though :-).
Interesting point: would people object more to a missile silo or
to a nuclear power station within 2 miles?

Martin Taylor
-- 

Martin Taylor
{allegra,linus,ihnp4,uw-beaver,floyd,ubc-vision}!utcsrgv!dciem!mmt

dave@utcsrgv.UUCP (Dave Sherman) (11/21/83)

With all the current concern about nuclear war, I would like to
start a movement to change the standard smallest novice C program to:

main()
{
	printf("goodbye world\n");
}



Dave Sherman
-- 
 {allegra,cornell,decvax,ihnp4,linus,utzoo}!utcsrgv!dave

notes@ucbcad.UUCP (11/23/83)

#N:ucbesvax:7500053:000:3608
ucbesvax!turner    Nov 15 23:38:00 1983

Here is an odd thought about strategic missile basing that has been
kicking around in my head ever since the MX basing controversy heated up:

	Just base all strategic missiles in the most densely-
	populated regions of the country.

This is quite the opposite of most basing schemes--the "shuttle" plan
and "dense pack" were both "sponge" strategies.  The idea was to put
the missiles in the most sparsely populated regions, deployed in such
a way that Soviet first-strike missiles would have to be piled on at
ratios that were (supposedly) very disadvantageous to them.

Now, before the anti-nuclear people start lambasting me as Strangelovian,
consider the following:

	- What could be a less ambiguous message to the effect that
	  the U.S. does not intend to strike first?  If we *did*
	  attempt a first-strike, it could only be in the expectation
	  of retaliation against civilian populations--hence any
	  first strike of ours would as much as say, "goodbye world."
	  (True in any case, right?)
	
	- Since "goodbye world" is difficult to construe as a national
	  defense policy, the Soviets would have a reasonable basis
	  for believing in our good intentions.  (Personally, I don't
	  think they have one, at the moment.)
	
	- Since any first-strike from the Soviets would necessarily also
	  be a genocidal action against the U.S., they need not doubt that
	  the U.S. response would be massive--the doctrine of deterrence
	  would thus be re-established; more forcefully, in fact, than ever
	  before.
	
	- Domestically, basing missiles in the civilian population is
	  an overt statement on the part of the U.S. government of
	  the apparent need for such weapons.  An MX in the town
	  square is not (by this reasoning) any less needed than
	  out in the alkali flats of Nevada--in fact, it might be
	  more usefully deployed in the town square, if in doing so,
	  the U.S. is making an honest statement to its citizens and
	  its enemies.
	
	- Certainly, we are expecting no less from West Germany.
	  (Unattributed quote from some DoD analyst: "towns in Germany
	  are only a few kilotons apart.")  Why not demonstrate our good
	  faith, and deploy long-range missiles in a similar manner in
	  our own country?
	
	- The domestic political barriers seem significant--who would
	  really *want* a silo-system downtown, anyway?  However, the
	  question is really one that disarmament promoters could
	  capitalize on:  what is the *difference*, given that the
	  strategy is, or should be, deterrence?  If there is no
	  difference, then what is the objection?  (I, for one, would
	  prefer a silo to some of the office-building projects being
	  pushed around Berkeley--missiles do not create a "need" for
	  ugly parking structures, and are probably not a significant
	  source of carbon monoxide.)
	
	- There seems to be an obvious flaw: doesn't this scheme mean
	  that a U.S. launch-on-warning is much more likely?  Maybe so.
	  However, since this scheme *is* a statement of seriousness
	  and good faith, perhaps the result would be a better state
	  of cooperation among the superpowers in detecting and
	  correcting errors in our (currently, rather error-prone)
	  early warning systems.

So there it is: an MX in every backyard, two cruises in every garage.
A strategic policy for the 80's.  Perhaps we can rephrase it more
respectably in a constitutional amendment.

I hope this has been sufficiently heretical for everyone.  I certainly
wouldn't want to be accused of having tame opinions in one of netland's
biggest flame newsgroups.
---
Michael Turner (ucbvax!ucbvax.turner)

renner@uiucdcs.UUCP (renner ) (11/24/83)

#R:ucbesvax:7500053:uiucdcs:29200044:000:808
uiucdcs!renner    Nov 24 01:59:00 1983

Basing missiles in population centers makes no difference to the
practicality of a US first strike.  Retaliation against cities is
always an possible response to a first strike; furthermore, after a
first strike, the missiles will be *gone*; empty missile silos will
not make the Soviets more likely to hit cities or to avoid them.

The other arguments are valid.  With missiles in cities, the Soviets
can no longer make a "counter-force" attack; blowing up our missiles
means blowing up our cities, and would result in retaliation against
their cities.  Odds of accidental war are reduced as well; since the
US does not fear a first strike, it need not adopt a launch-on-warning
policy.

Now, how do we convince the Soviets that *we* won't launch a first strike?

Scott Renner
{pur-ee,ihnp4}!uiucdcs!renner

rigney@uokvax.UUCP (11/25/83)

#R:ucbesvax:7500053:uokvax:5000034:000:486
uokvax!rigney    Nov 23 04:03:00 1983

Tucson, Little Rock, Wichita, Oakland, Colorado Springs, Charles-
town,  Newport,  Louisville,  Annapolis, Great Falls, Omaha, Fay-
etteville, Charlotte, Philadelphia, El  Paso,  Oakland,  Oklahoma
City,  to  name  just  a few, are all located near major military
targets. As well, fallout patterns from ground bursts vs. missile
bases would cover most of the midwest, the U.S. breadbasket.

Perhaps your plan is already in effect:-)

	Have a nice day,

		Carl
		..!ctvax!uokvax!rigney