gps@ihu1e.UUCP (12/07/83)
I keep hearing talk of the possibility of an accidental launch on
this net. I'm not sure what kind of accident is being referenced,
but if is the kind where some crew member inadvertently leans on
the "LAUNCH BUTTON" then I'm afraid there are many uninformed people
doing alot of needless worrying.
I spent four years in the Air Force, three of which were on a
Titan II missile crew. One of those three was spent on an instructor
crew. The crew on site has no authority to launch whenever they decide
they want to. There is no "LAUNCH BUTTON" and the procedures to initiate
a launch are incredibly complex. When I say the crew has no authority I
don't mean verbal authority. The sites are electronically disabled and it
takes two people to turn keys, that are normally locked in a safe, simultaneously upon the absence of the disable signal. This isn't even half of what
has to happen. I can't get into details but I really don't see any possible
sequence of events that could lead to an accidental launch of an ICBM by
a crew, not even a "deliberate" accidental launch.
Greg Stephensken@ihuxq.UUCP (12/07/83)
-----
Greg assures us that there is no "launch button", & that is
undoubtedly true. My fears of an accidental launch (& I
believe the crux of net discussion) derive from how we know
there is an attack to respond to. As things (missiles) stand now,
the time from any launch to impact is on the order of hours.
This is sufficient time to review the data from an attack
alarm by hand. When we put Pershings in Europe we give the
Russians no more than 15 minutes, possibly only 6.
If they thought we were out to get them (how silly),
they might automate the decision process (which I
do distinguish from the actual firing process).
In fact, they have threatened to.
But we can all sleep soundly, since there cannot
possibly be any significant bugs in their decision algorithm
or its implementation. After all, Russia's 5-year programs
have always worked exactly according to plan.
--
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ken perlow ***** *****
(312)979-7261 ** ** ** **
..ihnp4!ihuxq!ken *** ***renner@uiucdcs.UUCP (renner ) (12/09/83)
#R:ihu1e:-16700:uiucdcs:29200053:000:578
uiucdcs!renner Dec 9 03:37:00 1983
/***** uiucdcs:net.politics / ihuxq!ken / 7:20 am Dec 8, 1983 */
As things (missiles) stand now, the time from any launch to impact is
on the order of hours.
/* ---------- */
This is not true. An ICBM such as the Minuteman II or the SS-18 has a total
flight time closer to 30 minutes. The amount of warning time will almost
certainly be less, since we can depend on the Soviets to take out our
early-warning IR satellites with either ground-based lasers or hunter-killer
satellites (both tested, both presumably operational).
Scott Renner
{pur-ee,ihnp4}!uiucdcs!rennerucbesvax.turner@ucbcad.UUCP (12/15/83)
#R:ihu1e:-16700:ucbesvax:7500062:000:495 ucbesvax!turner Dec 8 11:04:00 1983 Strategic missile systems do not have a LAUNCH BUTTON to accidentally lean against. And TMI didn't have a MELTDOWN BUTTON to accidentally lean against. In referring to the possibility of accidental launch, I tend to think of phenomena that nobody could have predicted, much less provided a control mechanism for. For an example of how a complex system can do unpredictable things in response to unpredicted events, see your last 500+ line program. --- Michael Turner (ucbvax!ucbesvax.turner)