[net.politics] The Zero Option: Can Reagan Count?

mjk@tty3b.UUCP (Mike Kelly) (03/15/84)

First, one has to look at disarmament as more than a simple "let's get rid
of all the weapons" process.  There is a crucial issue of trust.  For years,
both sides have given each other ample reason for fear.  Reductions, particularly
at the early stage, must be balanced so that there is no great fear of beginning,
and there is confidence built so the process can continue.

Second, one must enter into disarmament talks with legitimate goals.  The issue
of Reagan's motives is a very important one.  His entire political life, up until
just recently, shows that he has no faith in reductions.  He places all his
hope in gaining superiority over the Soviets.   His advisors told him that if he
continued with that tack, he would almost certainly lose the 1984 election.  So
he tempered and began trying to sound more conciliatory.  His nice-sounding
proposals (Zero Option, for example) hold no water.  It is indicative that he
names the MX, one of the most destabilizing missle systems ever, the "Peacemaker".
One can legitimately wonder just what kind of "peace" he has in mind.  It is 
important to understand the background of politicians; it is the best guide to
what they really believe, and where they're really going.  Reagan is a great
actor, and he knows exactly what to say to make people feel good.  Unfortunately,
it usually has nothing to do with what he's actually doing.

Third, you ask why Freeze supporters don't also support "eliminating nuclear
weapons in Europe."  Most probably do, but that has nothing to do
with the Zero Option.  Despite its name, the Zero option didn't mean zero nuclear
weapons in Europe.  It was an offer to abandon NATO plans for
deployment of 572 Cruise and Pershing missiles in return for Soviet dismantling
of all SS-20, SS-4 and SS-5 missiles already in Eastern Europe.
The Soviets pointed out that our good friends, the French and British, have 144
submarine missiles, 18 intermediate land-based missiles and 150 medium-range
bombers, and that those probably weren't aimed at New York or Bonn.  The Reagan
negotiators simply claimed that those don't count (technically, they claimed the
French and British missles are tactical, not strategic.)  The Soviets also consider
our submarine-based missiles, which can travel anywhere in the world, a large
threat, especially since they can't reliably track them.  Those, too, weren't
under discussion.  An interesting side note: If you consider Reagan and Chernenko
the two most powerful men in the world by virtue of the nuclear weapons they
control, next in line is a U.S. nuclear submarine captain.  Each captain is
empowered to make his own decisions about when to fire missiles in the event he
can't establish contact with his home base.

The Freeze deserves support because it is balanced, implementable and a positive
first step.  The Freeze can be used to build confidence on both sides that good
agreements will be followed and supported.  The Test Ban Treaty is an example
of such an agreement, albeit far more limited in scope.  The Freeze would set a
new course for U.S. policy, a course away from investing more and more money in
weapons, and paradoxically, buying only greater and greater insecurity.

The Freeze is not without its risks, of course.  But neither is an endless
build-up of nuclear weapons.  There are risks associated with both and I'd rather
take a chance for something positive than continue to take chances for policies
which can only end in one way.

Mike Kelly
..!ihnp4!tty3b!mjk