flinn@seismo.UUCP (E. A. Flinn) (03/21/84)
--- I put a note in net.politics a couple of months ago, summarizing a pattern recognition analysis of presidential elections 1864-1980, where all but one election (1912) could be predicted on the basis of twelve criteria. To predict 1984 one would have to recalculate the learning kernel, which I don't have a program to do, but it looks to me as if Reagan against Mondale in superficially prosperous times would be no contest, at least on this basis. However, you only need to change two of the twelve to make it close. One criterion is scandal, and if the administration is unable to suppress the Meese-Wick-Lavelle-EPA scandals, this could change. Another criterion is charisma of incumbent vs. challenger, and a Hart-Jackson ticket would be charismatic if nothing else. However, I think it's not possible for Hart+Jackson to overcome racial prejudice: for example, Tom Bradley's defeat for the Senate in California showed that this is still strong. The country probably won't be ready for a black candidate for another twenty years. A well-qualified woman is a different matter. Another event that could tip the balance might be the people becoming disenchanted with the shortcomings of this administration, which are many and manifest. A stronger ticket for the Democrats would probably be Hart & Mondale, although I doubt that Fritz would go for second place again.