bch@unc.UUCP (Byron Howes ) (11/15/83)
Given that fa.arms-d has died (or if it hasn't, we don't get it any more) I am surprised that the Sagan, Ehlich et. al "Nuclear Winter" scenario hasn't come up for discussion in this forum. Briefly, this group has hypothesized (with the aid of computer models) that the amount of smoke, dust and general debris kicked up into the atmosphere from even a limited nuclear strike on cities in the Northern Hemisphere would cause absorbtion of sunlight to the point where only 1% of normal sunlight would fall on continental interiors. The effect of this would be a 2 month temperature drop of below 0 centigrade, the maximum being about -20 centigrade after the first week. In cases of a full-scale strike and counterstrike, the temperatures would plummet to -50 C. according to their scenario, not returning to above 0 levels until more than a year later. In addition, reduction of ambient light would probably stop photosynthesis. The Center ffor Atmospheric Research in Boulder, which uses a much more sophisticated model for atmospheric simulation agrees nominally with the Sagan scenario adding that winds would probably carry the smoke and dust into the Southern Hemisphere with the attendant possibility of the extinction of human life. Both studies agree with the results found by a group of Soviet scientists. To add hellfire to smoke and brimstone, if there are sufficient air strikes (as in neutron bomb) there will be a resultant catalytic stripping away of the ozone layers in the atmosphere subjecting what remains on the earth to a fair amount of hard ultraviolet when the "cloud" cover finally settles. Momentarily resisting the urge to panic, does anyone have any hard data on the TTAPS (the official name for the Sagan/Ehlich scenario) simulation? Could mistakes have been made? If so, how and why? Cheerfully, Byron Howes UNC - Chapel Hill decvax!duke!mcnc!unc!bch
flink@umcp-cs.UUCP (06/12/84)
I saw a letter inin the Wall Street Journal (spring semester 1984, sorry I can't remember the exact date) that disputed the conclusions of Sagan et. al. on Nuclear Winter. I think it was written by a professor of meteorology. One of the author's main points was that the heat from the nuclear blasts and resulting fires would cause precipitation that would remove most of the sky-darkening particles from the atmosphere. --Paul Torek, umcp-cs!flink