mmt@dciem.UUCP (Martin Taylor) (08/04/84)
The arguments on accident rates in the US and W.Germany seem to demand
properly comparable statistics. Someone suggested accidents per passenger
mile *including public transport*. What kind of a question would that
answer? How could the answer affect individual behaviour or public
policy? If we want to know whether German traffic laws and behaviour
are safer than US ones, the statistics must be comparable in respect
of risk imposed by factors other than the ones being compared. How many
of these other factors are there? I can think of a few: traffic density,
driver training and skill, quality of car suspension and steering,
weather patterns ...
Where in the US are you going to find traffic such as in the Ruhr,
with frequent patchy fog, terrific traffic densities over a maze
of expressways (often in poor repair or under repair), drivers of
high average skill driving cars that are mostly small and underpowered
or small and extraordinarily nimble (by US standards)? If you could
find a comparable set of conditions, you could start matching statistics
and claim that the laws and conventions of traffic behaviour might
have something to do with differences in accident rates.
One condition that MIGHT provide a fairer comparison would be to compare
expressway accident rates in moderate-density traffic on clear days or
nights. The differences should then be mainly attributable to the laws
and conventions, and to the quality of the cars and drivers.
But there's no use bandying around gross statistics, or claiming that
anyone driving over 55mph is a crazed suicidal maniac, because either
kind of claim is irrelevant to finding out the truth of the matter.
--
Martin Taylor
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