orb@whuxl.UUCP (SEVENER) (08/22/84)
It should be pointed out that the Reagan administration has yet to
bring a single charge before the SCC (Standing Consultative
Committee,charged with monitoring treaty compliance). Nonetheless
the Reagan Administration continues to leak confidential and hence
unconfrimable reports about Soviet treaty violations. Here is a
response to some of the frequent charges which keep being repeated
even though may of them had been dealt with in the past by the
Standing Consultative Committee under past Presidents.
1. "Development of chemical and biological weapons"
we assume this is the infamous "Yellow Rain" controversy.
Some months ago some scientists analyzed the samples of
alleged "Yellow Rain" and found they were chemically similar
to bee pollen indigenous to Southeast Asia. After many more
months of research a recent issue of "Chemical and
Engineering News" concluded: "In view of the critical nature
of this issue, it would not be unreasonable to expect that
the U.S. has an irrefutably strong case to support its
charges, and, especially, that the supporting science is
sound. But this is not the case."
2. "New radar deployed in the Soviet interior "
This allegation probably concerns testing SA-5 radar in an
ABM mode. After this issue was raised in the SCC the Soviet
Union stopped using SA-5 radar for missile tests. This
demonstrates both the importance and effectiveness of
treaties which can be enforced to PREVENT the Soviet Union
from engaging in questionable arms activities.
3. Encoding information on missile flight tests
According to the State Dept. encoding of missile flight tests
has not impeded U.S. verification of Soviet testing. (U.S.
Dept. of State, Selected Documents no. 7 "SALT II Agreement")
The U.S. under past Administrations has not pushed this
charge for fear it would reveal how much the U.S. can already
decode Soviet messages of any kind.
4. Testing a second, new intercontinental ballistic missile
We presume this is the recurring charge that the Soviets have
tested or are developing a mobile ICBM system. While there
is no evidence that this is so, in fact , SALT II permits
both sides to build one new ICBM system. Unfortunately
President Reagan opposed ratification of SALT II, even if it
DID forbid ICBM development.
5. The yields of underground nuclear detonations
This is the old argument that the Soviets have exceeded the
150 kiloton limit on nuclear tests. Unfortunately however it
is impossible to accuse the Soviets of violating the
Threshold Test Ban Treaty which forbids such tests since
President Reagan was among those who have prevented that
treaty from being ratified. Notwithstanding the fact the
treaty is not officially in effect, Science
magazine examined this issue and concluded that the
seismographic evidence did not indicate any tests over 150
kilotons.
6. Deployment of existing ICBM's
This is the charge that the Soviets continued producing SS-
16's after they were banned by SALT II. In fact the Soviets
stopped testing the SS-16 in 1976, before SALT II, and the
Defense Intelligence Agency has stated that it has NOT been
tested or deployed for many years.
It would seem that the Joint Chiefs of Staff have good reason to
say that the Soviets have upheld nuclear arms treaties. When the
Soviets have engaged in questionable activities the SCC has been
successful in bringing such activities to a halt.
In fact many of the activities the Reagan Administration calls
"questionable" would only be violations of treaties which the
Reagan administration has refused to ratify or support. Not only
has the Reagan administration been totally unsuccessful in
preventing a single Soviet missile from being deployed but treaties
already negotiated have been jettisoned: the Threshold Test Ban
Treaty, the Peaceful Nuclear Explosions Treaty, the Non-
Proliferation Treaty, the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty. President
Reagan has opposed a bilateral Nuclear Freeze despite testimony
from numerous arms experts that in fact a Nuclear Freeze would be
easier to verify than existing treaties. The former Director of
the CIA under President Nixon, William Colby has testified that a
Nuclear Weapons Freeze would actually be easier to verify and
monitor than past treaties. : "It is equally important to
recognize that monitoring Soviet forces and weaponry will be easier
for us with a negotiated arrangement such as a Freeze than it is at
present."
The only way to stop the Soviets from deploying new weapons systems
is to negotiate more treaties-and make them honor those treaties.
Regrettably President Reagan has done neither.
Tim Sevener
whuxl!orb
Bell Labs, Whippanyrenner@uiucdcs.UUCP (08/23/84)
#R:whuxl:-18700:uiucdcs:29200143:000:2349 uiucdcs!renner Aug 23 00:53:00 1984 /**** uiucdcs:net.politics / orb@whuxl / 5:52 pm Aug 22, 1984 ****/ > > ...Here is a response to some of the frequent charges which keep being > repeated even though may of them had been dealt with in the past by > the Standing Consultative Committee under past Presidents. > > 1. "Development of chemical and biological weapons" we assume this is > the infamous "Yellow Rain" controversy... There is considerable evidence that the Soviets are using recombinant DNA techniques to produce biological weapons. Or so said an article in Wall Street this year, which quoted Russian emigrants as saying that they had worked on such a project. The circumstantial evidence includes the fact that several Soviet biochemists with expertise in this area were refused exit visas on the grounds that they possess "national defense secrets." There is also the well-documented outbreak of anthrax around Sverdlosk (I think) back in the late 1970s. Anthrax is a very useful disease for biological warfare; the British played around with it in WWII, and the test ground is still uninhabitable. The point here is that the evidence is much stronger than that from the "Yellow Rain" controversy. > 2. "New radar deployed in the Soviet interior " This allegation > probably concerns testing SA-5 radar in an ABM mode... Then again, it might concern the new phased-array radar being constructed in Siberia. The Soviets say that it is only for tracking satellites, but it appears that it can be used as part of an ABM system as well. The Soviets are pretty good at this trick. They have a mobile anti-aircraft system (the SA-11? -- just guessing) which is supposed to protect against high-altitude airplanes, and is therefore not prohibited by treaty. The ABM applications of this system are presumably incidental. > The only way to stop the Soviets from deploying new weapons systems > is to negotiate more treaties-and make them honor those treaties. > Regrettably President Reagan has done neither. This is probably true. But the treaties had better be verifiable. I think this requires on-site inspection. And there had better be a plan on what to do if the Soviets don't honor the treaties. I think this requires something better than a Standing Consultative Committee. Scott Renner {ihnp4,pur-ee}!uiucdcs!renner