[net.politics] Mike Kelly on Afghanistan and reality

cher@ihuxi.UUCP (Mike Musing) (09/07/84)

> You missed my point.  Soviet foreign policy is to surround the USSR
> with satellites and exploit advantages.  Afghanistan is not an indication
> of some mythical yearning for a warm water port, as the conservatives had
> us believe in 1979.   Rather, it was a chance for the Soviets to consolidate
> their leadership in what was already a satellite.  Chances are those who 
> suggested going in have long since fallen from power within the USSR, since
> it was at least a bad miscalculation.
> 
> One needs to look at reality, not rhetoric.  
> 
> Mike Kelly

Just to look at reality for a change:
1) Soviet foreign policy is to surround EVERYTHING with satellites.
2) Afghanistan was a souvereign monarchy, now it is a base for Soviet
   troops and Soviet expansion. It is a step in strategy aimed at
   world domination.
3) Who's "fallen from power"?!! Chernenko is Brezhnev's protege, there
   were no big shakeups in Soviet government. "Chances are" the
   resistance will be squelched, and the bemedaled veterans of the
   war will be sent on to Pakistan and other places.
4) Miscalculation or not, they've moved closer to Persian gulf, hence
   closer to your pocket and throat.
             
And that's real.                             Mike Musing

russ@ihuxi.UUCP (Russell Spence) (09/07/84)

>> You missed my point.  Soviet foreign policy is to surround the USSR
>> with satellites and exploit advantages.  Afghanistan is not an indication
>> of some mythical yearning for a warm water port, as the conservatives had
>> us believe in 1979.   Rather, it was a chance for the Soviets to consolidate
>> their leadership in what was already a satellite.  Chances are those who 
>> suggested going in have long since fallen from power within the USSR, since
>> it was at least a bad miscalculation.
>> 
>> One needs to look at reality, not rhetoric.  
>> 
>> Mike Kelly
> 
> Just to look at reality for a change:
> 1) Soviet foreign policy is to surround EVERYTHING with satellites.
> 2) Afghanistan was a souvereign monarchy, now it is a base for Soviet
>    troops and Soviet expansion. It is a step in strategy aimed at
>    world domination.
> 3) Who's "fallen from power"?!! Chernenko is Brezhnev's protege, there
>    were no big shakeups in Soviet government. "Chances are" the
>    resistance will be squelched, and the bemedaled veterans of the
>    war will be sent on to Pakistan and other places.
> 4) Miscalculation or not, they've moved closer to Persian gulf, hence
>    closer to your pocket and throat.
>              
> And that's real.                             Mike Musing

I amazes me how many misconceptions people in the U.S. have about Russia's
motives and policies.  I think that there needs to be alot more study of
Russia and alot more education for the public about the Soviets attitudes.
The Soviets motives and the reason for their actions in Afghanistan are not
so simple.  I have talked to Russian studies majors and done a little reading
on the subject and would like to try to clear some things up.  Since WWII
the Soviet Union has in general not invaded countries to make them sattelites.
The invasions in Eastern Europe were perpetrated on countries that were
already satellites and were done to restore order.  While they supported
the invasions of Vietnam, Korea, etc. they didn't actually send troops and
the leaders of the actual invading countries still kept quite a bit of
autonomy from the Soviets even though they were still communist (thats
right, not all communists are Russians).  The invasion of Afghanistan
was NOT done primarily to get a warm water port or to grab yet another
satellite (though these side benefits may have affected their decision)
it was primarily done for national security reasons. Wait! before you
send those flames, let me explain WHY the invasion of Afghanistan was
necessary to maintain the national security of the Soviet Union.  First
you must understand that there is a very large number of Muslims in the
Soviet Union, that live primarily in the southern part, which in part
shares a common border with Afghanistan.  Before the invasion you will
recall that there was a big movement to restore orthodoxy to the Muslim
religion (remember Iran?).  This movement was spreading into Afghanistan
and easily could have spread from there to the Muslim population of the
Soviet Union.  This was a grave threat to the security of the Soviet
leaders.  Because of the nature of their government (I'm not condoning
it, just trying to explain it), any revolt in any sattelite is very
dangerous, because if it isn't put down it will lead the other sattelites
to follow suit.  This is what prompted the invasions of Czech. and
Hungary in the '50's.  They were already sattelites, but they had tried
to gain a little too  much autonomy.  You may think that the soviets
shouldn't be afraid of a few Muslims but you must remember that the
percentage is very high (something on the order of 40% I think, I am sure 
you'll correct me if I'm wrong).  It is interesting to note that there
are 100 languages spoken in the Soviet Union and Russian is the least
spoken of all 100.  Also, in almost every provence of the Soviet Union
road signs are in two languages, the local language and Russian.  This
shows the magnitude of the differences in culture within the Soviet
Union, and you can bet that one of the Soviet leader's greatest fears is
that one of these groups will become nationalistic and try to split off.
In my opinion the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan to keep radical Muslim
feeling from spreading into their country is no worse than us invading
someone like El Salvador to keep radical communist feelings from spreading
to the U.S.  The reason that we are so concerned with their actions is
because of the strategic importance of the area, however as you may have
noticed the Soviets have spent most of their time trying to defeat the
Muslim rebels instead of planning new invasions or taking advantage of
their newfound sattelite.  Does this give you any indications of thier
motives?  If they had just wanted more sattelites or warm water ports
they could have invaded long ago.  Sorry if this sounded a little
choppy but I tried to keep it short.
-- 

						Russell Spence
						ihnp4!ihuxi!russ
						AT&T Technologies
						Naperville, IL