trb@drutx.UUCP (09/04/84)
With the passing of the 1-year anniversary of the downing of the
Korean Airlines flight 007 by the Soviet Union, I would like to
discuss some topics that I haven't seen much of in the mass media,
namely, could there have been survivors, and what happened to the
plane?
My sources are varied for this, but some come from non-mass-media
sources and interviews with 747 pilots and Boeing engineers. I will
send a bibliography to whomever wants one.
WERE THERE SURVIVORS?
---------------------
One of the most puzzling aspects of the situation has been the near
total lack of concern or comment regarding the possibility that there
may have been survivors who were captured by the Soviets. There
certainly exists the possibility that some survived the crash landing.
Tape recordings and radar trackings confirm that 007 was hit at 35,000
feet by one or more Soviet rockets at 3:26 am (Japan time). Within 4
minutes (3:30 am), it had descended to approx. 16,000 feet (an average
rate of 4,750 ft/min). During the next 8 minutes it dropped another
11,000 feet (an average if 1,375 ft/min). At that point, still 5,000
in the air, the giant jet disappeared from the radar screens.
Presumably, although there is no way to know for sure, it would have
taken AT LEAST another 3 to 5 minutes for the plane to reach the sea's
surface. In other words, Flight 7 did not "plummet" out of control as
some reports have implied. Aviation experts agree that this 15-plus
minutes of descent time indicates that the pilot (or co-pilot) was
able to exercise considerable control over the crippled 747 following
the attack.
RATE OF DESCENT
---------------
The normal rate of descent for a 747 coming in for a regular landing
from 35,000 feet is approx. 3,000 ft/min. However, if the plane is
decompressed for any reason, the rate would be jumped to 4,000 to
7,000 ft/min until the aircraft reached an altitude of about 15,000 ft
(where there would be adequate oxygen and temperature). Remember,
Flight 7 descended to 16,000 feet at nearly 5,000 ft/min, but
thereafter moderated to an average of less than 1,500 ft/min.
Can such statistics be explained in any way other than that the plane
was still under control of a skilled pilot headed for a crash landing
from which there may have been survivors?
THE ROCKET ATTACK
-----------------
The chances for a reasonably successful crash landing would depend,
needless to say, on the extent of the damage inflicted by the Soviet
rocket(s). Flight 7 was apparently struck by two missles. The Soviet
SU-15 fighter plane, one of which is "credited" with the attack,
normally carries both heat-seeking and radar-homing rockets (one
each). The debris collected to date indicates a sizable section of
vertical stabilizer (tail fin) which bears indications of a powder
(rather than fuel) explosion.
In a discussion with some military experts, they speculated that the
radar-homing rocket hit the plane's fusilage beneath the tail section,
causing a prompt explosive decompression of the plane. The heat-
seeking rocket, on the other hand, probably found an outboard engine,
since the swept-back configuration of the wing would place the
outboard engines first in line for an incoming missle.
747 airline pilots and engineers agree that control of the plane could
be maintained with the tail section damaged extensively and an
outboard engine destroyed. In fact, the plane could be kept aloft
with only one working engine. The plane could even fly with only one
engine working and 1/3 of the wings blown off.
* Anyway, no matter what happened, the time of descent is conclusive *
* proof that the plane was still under some control. *
----
THE CRASH
---------
The speed on impact would depend, in large part, on whether the huge
wing flaps were operational. With the flaps down, the plane could be
slowed to perhaps 130 knots (150 mph), depending on such factors as
wind, weight, etc. Without flaps to provide the necessary lift, the
landing speed would more likely be around 190 knots (219 mph). Yet,
even at that higher speed, there would likely be at least a few
survivors.
It also seems reasonable to assume that many (perhaps most) of the
passengers had adequate time during the (relatively) lengthy descent
to don the life-jacket flotation devices, which are available on all
over-water commercial flights. Such devices would keep a person
afloat, even if they were unconscious or dead after impact.
The pieces of bodies found so far had no flotation devices of any
kind, and the condition of their remains indicates they were blown out
of the plane at decompression. (I've only seen mention of remains of
two bodies found so far. Anyone know a source that says more?)
WHAT HAPPENED IN THE WATER AFTER THE CRASH?
-------------------------------------------
Flight 7 appears to have been hit only seconds before leaving Soviet
air space, but would have crash landed well beyond, due in part to the
probable 75-90 additional miles it travelled during the descent. Yet,
the Soviets REFUSED to allow Japanese or American searchers into the
area for almost two days!!
WHAT HAPPENED IN THAT TIME????!!!!
First, all the debris ever collected filled about 3 trash bags, plus
there were a couple of pieces of tail section. You would expect this
amount of debris from a 2-seater Piper, not a mammouth 747. A 747 is
a HUGE plane, with hundreds of seats (floatable), flotation devices,
not to mention all the bodies (269), plus all the luggage, pillows,
clothing, food, and the plane itself! If the plane did explode of a
fuel explosion below 5000 ft., there would be bodies and debris to
such an extent that a large oil spill would pale in comparison. If
there was no explosion, then the plane crashed in large pieces, and
probably in 1 piece. WHERE IS IT? Granted, the ocean floor at that
point is jagged and depth vary as much as 2000 ft within a few feet,
but how can you lose a 747? Could the Soviets have taken what they
wanted (e.g. passengers and/or intelligence information) and destroyed
the rest?
CONCLUSION
----------
The point here is to discuss what happened after the rockets hit. A
747, in 1 piece would float for some time. If it broke up, smaller
pieces would have a better chance of floating. Plus, all the
floatable devices that would NOT sink. I'm putting forth the
conclusion that there may have been survivors, and the Soviets had a
reason for not letting anyone in that area for 2 days - so they could
clear everything away.
Please, do not get into WHY the plane was shot down, that's not in the
scope of this discussion. But, I would like to hear evidence that
others have, and please, NAME YOUR SOURCE so this doesn't become a
shouting match of what we "think" to be right. I'm genuinely
interested in gathering ALL the information I can.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tom Buckley
AT&T Information Systems
...ihnp4!drutx!trbpiet@mcvax.UUCP (Piet Beertema) (09/10/84)
<...>
>...thereafter moderated to an average of less than 1,500 ft/min.
Perhaps there's another explanation why the plane "slowed down" without
it necessarily being under "high degree of control" and that's because
the 747 has a unique feature:
When for some reason a plane gains speed (e.g. by falling down) it will
soon reach the "transsonic" region i.e. the region around the speed of sound.
In that region the smooth airflow along the wings breaks up into a turbulent
flow. Normally one result is that the "pressure point" under the wing shifts
towards the rear of the wing, thus enhancing the fall and effectively making
the plane fully uncontrollable. The opposite is the case with the 747: there
the pressure point shifts to the front of the wings, so the plane can even
start gaining height, thus recuding its speed.
Given this it would take the plane a considerable time to come down. But
even so the final speed at sea level would have been so high (just below
the speed of sound) as to blow the whole machine into pieces upon hitting
the water, even if the angle under which is was coming down was no more than
a few degrees. So it is very unlikely that there would have been survivors.
--
Piet Beertema, CWI, Amsterdam
...{decvax,philabs}!mcvax!piet