ryan@fremen.DEC (10/10/84)
vernment (Iraq, Iran, Libya) or terrorist group (PLO) will get their hands on nuclear weapons (and the afore-mentioned nations are doing their best), or a currently stable nuclear nation will become unstable (suppose the Arab countries got Israel's back against the wall, or the South African government faced a black revolution and/or invasion?). I don't think it will be long before this happens, and the critical question is What will happen next? The answer to that depends on 1. The nations directly involved (and we can't anticipate who they'll be or what their reactions will be), 2. The President of the United States, and 3. The Politburo. Now, the desirable reaction (at least the reaction I would desire) would be to avoid (at all costs) over-reacting and taking steps that may provoke a full-scale nuclear war (we can discuss until the end of time whether such a thing means the end of civilization, or if it's winnable, but the fact remains that we won't know until it happens - I'd prefer to remain ignorant). So, returning to the subject at hand, I would trust Mondale (much) more than Reagan in such a situation. Also, (remembering number 3 above), the Soviets are more likely to over-react if Reagan is in the White House. Mondale has a better grasp on the realities of world politics (not being inclined to see it as being a simple case of good vs. evil, he won't take any rash actions on the assumption that good always wins like in the movies). For those of you who doubt the probability of the above scenario (and I really do hope you're right), there are other foreign policy issues to discuss. I'm not going to bother with arms control, because we won't see a really effective agreement until we've all had the s*** scared out of us by someone getting nuked (again, I really hope I'm wrong about this). Instead, let's consider the "world respect" we've supposedly gained during Reagan's term of office. What kind of respect is it? Do other people in the world really respect us more because we blew away the Grenadian army and a couple hundred Cubans? Building a strong military and showing a willingness to use it does not promote respect, but fear. Do we respect the Soviet Union because they invaded Afghanistan and shot down a passenger airliner? Of course we don't, and other nations will not respect us for supporting terrorists in Nicaragua. The reason we get so little respect from Third World nations is our history of supporting evil (yes, I'm using that word) dictators like the Shah and Somoza (the Sandinistas aren't exactly innocent, but they aren't quite THAT bad yet). The reason we've got Khomeini and the Sandinistas to worry about now is that we supported the Shah and Somoza for so long the inevitable backlash went too far the other way. We need a foreign policy that will respect the rights of nations to self-determination and encourage governments to respect the basic human rights of their people. We are not going to get that from a man who would probably support Hitler because he was anti-communist. (it's getting a bit warm in here already). Well, I'll repeat - these are my opinions and not necessarily those of my employer (or even Walter Mondale). I'm looking forward to some healthy flaming on the subject. Till then, Mike Ryan
plunkett@rlgvax.UUCP (S. Plunkett) (10/12/84)
Whereas the analysis of economics (in "Part I" of the series) was illuminating, "Part II" on international politics and the balance of power was inspired. With a mind like that I should expect a President Mondale to appoint you at least an Under-Secretary. What more can I say? Your comprehension perhaps exceeds the brilliance of Mrs. Ferraro. Have you been briefing her?