[net.politics] Was WWII Japan close to developing l

mwm@ea.UUCP (10/21/84)

/***** ea:net.politics / uwvax!myers / 12:28 pm  Oct 14, 1984 */
Got this in the mail today; is it really from Truth?

>I think you have simplified matters. It is a known fact to those
>learned in military history that Japan was on the verge of perfecting
>their own nuclear arsenal. Due to an intelligence error Hiroshima was
>destroyed. When it was discovered that the actual research labs were
>in Nagasaki, we were lucky we had another bomb. Remember now, this
>wasn't the 1980's.

No, it isn't from truth; it probably hasn't been anywhere near the place.

Towards the end of WWII, the USA, England, Germany & Japan were all working
on A-bomb projects. The US was the only country that made any real progress.
England and Germany were trying to figure out how to get a running reactor
into the air (if you think that's bad, the people on project manhattan had
trouble trying to build a barrel for thin man that met mil. spec., and
could be gotten into the air!). The Japanese may have been the best off
theoretically, but it didn't make any difference - they didn't have the
materials/capability to build a bomb.

The target for the initial bomb were (in order of preference): Kokura Arsenal,
Hiroshima, Niigata, Kyoto, and Nagasaki. Kyoto was dropped from the list due to
its historical and religious significance to the Japanese. It was *not* dropped
from the list of cities reserved for the bomb, specifically so it would not
be destroyed. Given that Hiroshima was a secondary choice, I don't think it
was bombed due to an "intelligence error."

The above information comes from a paper I put together on those two
bombings about a decade ago. As is normal in historical research, it is
possible that something has turned up since then that invalidates part of
the findings. The bibliography from the paper is:

	Anders, Gunther: Burning Conscience
	Batchhelder, Robert C.: The irreversible decision
	Groves, Leslie R.: Now it Can Be Told
	Lamont, Lansing: Day of Trinity

As a side note, Leslie Groves was the commanding officer of the Manhattan
Project.

	<mike

mmt@dciem.UUCP (Martin Taylor) (10/25/84)

================
Towards the end of WWII, the USA, England, Germany & Japan were all working
on A-bomb projects. The US was the only country that made any real progress.
England and Germany were trying to figure out how to get a running reactor
into the air (if you think that's bad, the people on project manhattan had
trouble trying to build a barrel for thin man that met mil. spec., and
could be gotten into the air!). The Japanese may have been the best off
theoretically, but it didn't make any difference - they didn't have the
materials/capability to build a bomb.
================

What sort of baloney is this?  The Manhattan Project was in the USA,
but the workers on it were of several Allied nations.  All English
know-how was provided as the start-up, and many non-American refugees
from the Nazi countries were part of the effort.  The work was done
in N. America (not just USA) because of the reasonable likelihood that
the Germans would overrun Britain in 1940-41, and because there was
in any case less chance of damage from bombing on this side of the
Atlantic.  There never was an independent English effort, until after
the war, when the Fuchs case and general US paranoia led to the raising
of security barriers against continued cooperation.

As for Germany, they may have had reasonable theoretical prospects,
but after the raids on the Norwegian heavy water plants, they didn't
have too much hope of actually making a working reactor with which
to produce the bomb-grade material.  It was certainly a worry, whether
Hitler would produce a bomb first.  As for Japan, this correspondence
is the first I have heard about a Japanese potential for building
an A-bomb. Could be because of European insularity, or because there
never was such a threat.
-- 

Martin Taylor
{allegra,linus,ihnp4,floyd,ubc-vision}!utzoo!dciem!mmt
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