jj@alice.UUCP (03/06/85)
Tim Sevener points out that the chance of being killed in the NY subway is 1 in 142,000,000 rides. That is an impressive number, but it really doesn't have anything much to do with the threat that an individual faces on the subway. First, let's assume that a resident of one of the poorer areas has to use the subway to go to/from work every day. That's roughly (allowing for weekend use, etc) 700 trips per year. This means that the chance of not being murdered changes from .999999993 to the 700th power of that number, approximately .999995, making the chance of being murdered in a year, assuming that the 1/142000000 number exactly applies, about 1 in 202634 or so, which is a big difference. (Note that one can only be murdered once, so the appropriate statistic is the chance of survival of each ride, NOT the chance of death!) Now, then, let's assume that the person in question has to ride from an EL stating somewhere in Bronx/Brooklyn that is in a BAD area, and that they have to ride to work in the afternoon rush hour (as safe as any time) and BACK from work at 2:00 AM, after working second shift, which is the only work they can get. I would personally assume that it si much more dangerous on the subway at 2AM, given my personal experience, at least. Let's say it's ten times as dangerous then, (just a guess, NO hard figures, but I suspect it's an underestimate!) so we have 350 trips at one risk, yeilding a chance of safety of .999997532, and 250 trips, yeilding a chance of safety of safety of .999975349, or a chance of safety in tot of a*b of .999972881, or one chance in 36875 of being killed each year. That's not nearly as good odds as one would like. These numbers, of course, do not cover any sort of non-fatal outcome. Anyone want to compare this risk to driving an auto, etc? -- FESTINA LENTE "...rice is nice, that's what they say..." (allegra,harpo,ulysses)!alice!jj
orb@whuxl.UUCP (SEVENER) (03/07/85)
I agree with jj's attempt to consider various factors which affect
an individual's actual risk of being murdered on the subway in
a given year. It would be interesting to compare this risk to that
in driving an auto and other activities.
*This* is the kind of analysis that the media *should* have engaged in
when discussing the Goetz case and the risks of riding the subways.
Unfortunately they have not considered the actual facts or the extent
of the problem whatsoever. I have no idea how many people ride
the subway every day, which times murders tend to occur (tho it
undoubtedly is *much* more likely at night: but how much?), how many
people report robberies, or estimates of how many robberies there are
that go unreported. Nor do I know how many murders that do occur
in the subway involve robbery attempts and how many are between
husband and wife, drug gangs, etc. which are not really relevant
to most people. If I am not involved in drug dealing then unless I
happen to get hit by a stray bullet I am much less concerned with killings
which revolve around drug dealing. Certainly we all must be concerned
whenever anyone's life is taken but such murders probably do not put
my own life at risk.
Why are the media more concerned about whether one person ate a baloney
sandwich before shooting 4 alleged assailants than they are about
assessing the actual risk in the subway for the average citizen?
I think the media's coverage of this incident is typical of the way
they become obsessed with a narrow-minded peculiar incident rather
than intelligently analyzing or debating the broader issues involved.
By sensationalizing the incident they have only invoked people's
emotions and not really informed us whatsoever.
So far, this has been the only hard fact of general significance I
have seen in the media on the whole issue.
"You may lie with statistics, but anecdotes are
like consorting with Prostitution of the Truth!"
tim sevener whuxl!orbmmt@dciem.UUCP (Martin Taylor) (03/08/85)
(On being murdered in the NY subway) >Let's say it's ten times as dangerous then, (just a guess, NO >hard figures, but I suspect it's an underestimate!) so we >have 350 trips at one risk, yeilding a chance of safety of .999997532, >and 250 trips, yeilding a chance of safety of safety of .999975349, >or a chance of safety in tot of a*b of .999972881, or one chance >in 36875 of being killed each year. That's not nearly as good >odds as one would like. > >Anyone want to compare this risk to driving an auto, etc? >-- >FESTINA LENTE No. But the chance of dying in any one year is about .014 (less at some ages, if you want to conditionalize the probability, but we weren't doing that, were we?). So the probability that your method of death will be murder of the subway, if you take the most dangerous kind of trip (as jj postulated), is about .002 Maybe that's not good enough, but I would guess that the probability that your method of death will be a car accident is greater (only a guess) if you drive to work in NY every day. -- Martin Taylor {allegra,linus,ihnp4,floyd,ubc-vision}!utzoo!dciem!mmt {uw-beaver,qucis,watmath}!utcsri!dciem!mmt
gjk@talcott.UUCP (Greg Kuperberg) (03/08/85)
> Let's say it's ten times as dangerous then, (just a guess, NO > hard figures, but I suspect it's an underestimate!) so we > have 350 trips at one risk, yeilding a chance of safety of .999997532, > and 250 trips, yeilding a chance of safety of safety of .999975349, > or a chance of safety in tot of a*b of .999972881, or one chance > in 36875 of being killed each year. That's not nearly as good > odds as one would like. > > These numbers, of course, do not cover any sort of non-fatal > outcome. > > Anyone want to compare this risk to driving an auto, etc? .. > (allegra,harpo,ulysses)!alice!jj Ok, here's a start: There are 50,000 auto fatalities/year in the US. Given that there are 230,000,000 people, that's one chance in 46000 per year for a given man, woman, or child to have it all ended by hurtling through the windshield. The Scientific American article also gave stat- istics based on age, and it's several times higher for people under 25, and astronomically higher for kids between 16 and 20. Sorry, I don't have a photographic memory, so I can't give you precise statistics. But let's say that a college bum who drinks has a one in 3000 chance each year of seeing God on the highway. --- Greg Kuperberg harvard!talcott!gjk "2*x^5-10*x+5=0 is not solvable by radicals." -Evariste Galois.
nyssa@abnji.UUCP (nyssa of traken) (03/08/85)
>Anyone want to compare this risk to driving an auto, etc?
How about guns (groan). With 11000 fatalities per year in a country
with a population of 242000000 that is one in 22,000. You are safer on
the subway than on the street.
--
James C Armstrong, Jnr. { ihnp4 || allegra || mcnc || cbosgb } !abnji!jca
"Emotion is a weakness!"
"I don't think so"
"It brought you back for your friend and it will cost you your life!"