mjk@tty3b.UUCP (Mike Kelly) (03/25/85)
>From: medin@ucbvax.ARPA (Milo Medin) >3) Attempt to maintain parity and achieve superiority if possible, >and oppose Soviet actions throughout the world. This method >is expensive, and requires much patience. If we maintain >such pressure, not only military but economic, we can force the >Soviet state to divert more and more money to the military, >causing more and more internal strife. The Soviet leadership >will see that they cannot maintain control and superiority at >the same time, and thus conceed inferiority to us. Or if they >do not, the people will revolt causing the downfall of the >state and we will be rid of the USSR as we know it. The last >2 possibilities may take a long time, but we will have peace in >the meantime. The key point to remember is that the Soviets >are extremely conservative, and if they look at the books and see >a given action has a low chance of success, they will not move. >Thus, by attaining superiority we also attain peace, not cheaply, Milo, do you believe the U.S. would allow the Soviets to attain superiority? If not, why do you think the U.S.S.R. would allow us to? Let me put this another way (and this is crucial, because Milo's vision is Reagan's as well): You are the Soviet leadership. You are watching a country you fear enormously, because of their evident leadership in technology and armaments -- they have, after all initiated every significant advance in the arms race since World War II. That country elects a leader pledged not to parity, but superiority. It undertakes a rough doubling of its military budget over four years, announces a major technological initiative to make your weapons useless and shuns arms control. You watch this country pick up steam and pull ahead. You increase your own spending and research, but soon realize that not only is the U.S. ahead, but it is accelerating. The time is soon approaching when you will never be able to catch up. You will be caught in permanent inferiority. However, there is a window. Perhaps one or two years, when you can still carry some weight. What do you do? Do you resign yourself to inferiority and negotiate the best terms you can? Or do you attack? Well, we just don't know what they would do. But I think we had damn well better realize the incredible risk to which the Reagan policy of superiority is subjecting not only Americans, but the entire world. This policy could very well lead to a nuclear war out of desperation. Now there's no way of knowing whether that will happen. Perhaps the U.S. government will be nice and not dictate too unacceptable terms, and the Soviets will resign themselves. But perhaps they won't. To place the survival of the world on the hope that you will be able to externally forment a rebellion in the Soviet Union seems to me to be the ultimate longshot. You may just win, Milo. But what if you lose? What if you lose? Mike Kelly