[net.politics] Soviet Conventional Offensive Ca

janw@inmet.UUCP (10/07/85)

> > [al@ames.UUCP]
> >2. When the Wermacht invaded the USSR on 22 June 1941 the Red Army was
> >vastly superior in numbers of men, tanks, and aircraft.  The Germans
> >went through the Red Army like a hot knife through butter.

> [slb@drutx]
> I had always heard that the Germans penetrated Russia so quickly
> partially as a maneuver on the Russian's part.  The usual tactic
> if you are a country with so much open space is to fall back, burning your
> fields as you go.  ...
> I know that the Russians used this technique effectively in the 
> Napoleanic and First World Wars.  I had thought that WWII saw them
> use the same technique.  

This is wrong with respect to all three campaigns.  It  is  least
wrong  for  the Napoleonic invasion: the Russian army did retreat
as a whole and in a purposeful way. But that was not a result  of
any  grand  plan of entrapment, but of the tactical perception on
the part of the commander-in-chief Barclay  de  Tolly,  at  every
given  moment,  that a  battle  would be disastrous.  Neither his
boss the emperor nor other generals  shared  this  view;  finally
Barclay  was sacked,  the battle  given  (with  terrible, but not
quite fatal, losses), and then retreat,  of  necessity,  resumed.
The  Russian  army  did  not "burn  its  fields";  evacuation was
recommended, as well as noncooperation with the enemy, that  is
all.  The outcome of that  war was  as  unexpected  for  the Rus-
sians as for the French; if they deserved the victory , it was by
virtue  of   implacable,  stubborn determination to hang on. They
felt much as the British did after Dunkirk.

In WWI, the enemy did not penetrate deep into Russia -
so the question of entrapment does not arise.

The first phase of WWII  was an unmitigated disaster for Stalin's
Russia.  "Hot  knife  through  butter"  is  quite correct, but it
should be added that the knife scooped up large portions  of  the
butter   and  splattered  around the rest: military units from an
army down were being surrounded by the Germans and  surrendering;
others  scattered  in  a  panic  flight.  No one could possibly
*plan* such a thing on the Soviet side. And,  in  fact,  all  the
Red   Army   plans  envisaged fighting on the *enemy* terrain (in
part, no doubt, because Stalin did not trust his population  to
stay   loyal).   The catastrophy  was  much  worse  than  the one
in France; the  USSR was  saved  by its vast territory, this much
is   true.    It  was also saved  by  German  errors,  especially
political  ones.  Had Hitler  done  the bare minimum to  preserve
the  goodwill  of  Russians  and Ukranians  that  he  at  first
enjoyed,  the  outcome would, in all probability, have been  dif-
ferent.

Does it follow that Russia is a paper tiger ? Far  from  it.   By
the *end* of WWII the Red Army was certainly, and by a large mar-
gin, the strongest in the world. Now it has a far greater accumu-
lation of weapons, as well as far more expendable human material,
than its NATO counterparts.  Also  incomparably  better   intelli-
gence.   How  it  would actually fight, no one knows, Afghanistan
is no indicator.  Wars are unpredictable. Better   not   to
provoke  them.  *And the only way to provoke Soviet leadership is
by weakness*.

                Jan Wasilewsky