[net.politics] Perverse over-extension

oaf@mit-vax.UUCP (Oded Feingold) (12/14/85)

>	Why has the government of Israel chosen to spy against 
>	its closest ally and defender?		[Farzin Mokhtarian]
		     ------------------------------
    1.  It needs certain information, for example on the capabilities of
Arab  armies  armed with American weapons, or activities of the American
6th fleet.  Example:  Avoiding US patrols while enroute to/from Tunis.
    2.   "Closest"  isn't  quantified.   Are you implying US and Israeli
interests are identical?  That Israel is a US puppet (or the reverse)?

>	Isn't that the kind of thing you expect from an enemy or at 
>	least an unfriendly government? 
		     ------------------------------
    No, I expect everyone to spy on everyone  else.   The  US  spies  on
Israel,  too.  [Israel's a bit better-natured about it - they deport and
return spies quietly.  They also  return  captured  Soviet  advisers  or
pilots  quietly.   No  point  in looking for trouble when you're small.]
Besides, friendly overall doesn't mean friendly on every  point.   We've
sold AWACS to the Saudis and HAWK SAMs to the Jordanians.  Did they sign
peace treaties with Israel or something?  [It can  be  plausibly  argued
that  Saudi  Arabia  needs  AWACS to deal with Iranian incursions on her
oilfields.  But Jordan is placing its HAWK batteries  along  the  Jordan
River,  not  along the Syrian border.  A careful reading of history will
show that although Jordan  fought  two  wars/episodes  with  Israel,  it
started  both.   However,  the Syrians attacked Jordan in 1971, with the
express intention of toppling Hussein.  Israel has never  been  remotely
interested in that.]

>	Would Israel risk a very close, beneficial relationship 
>	with the U.S. over a silly spy game ...
		     ------------------------------
    Some people may not share your definition of "silly spy game."   For
us,  it's  an incremental diminution in our security, probably unrelated
to our true enemy, the USSR - for them, it may be the difference between
success or failure in a war.

>	... if it truly expected a more critical reaction from the U.S.? 
		     ------------------------------
    Finally,  the  hidden Mokhtarianism bubbles to the surface.  "Israel
has the US in its nasty little pocket, so it knows we haven't  the  guts
to  oppose  it."   (You  see,  Farzin,  your  talent for leaving a snide
interpretation open is only exceeded by  my  penchant  for  making  said
interpretation.)

    Two  explanations:   <1> Pollard recruited himself, offering info in
return for money, and they couldn't resist.   [$2500/month  for  quality
info  is  birdfeed  -  cheep,  cheep.]  <2> Rafael Eitan or someone else
worried about various things impeding the Israeli air force's ability to
do  its  thing  [after  all  - the 6th fleet is the only force with that
capability - not even the Russkies can get air superiority  over  Israel
in  that  part of the world] and took a chance.  Israel's first priority
is staying alive - friendship with the US comes second.  [Another  after
all  -  after all, the US forced Israel to give up her territorial gains
in return for NOTHING in 1956, and kept Israel  from  knocking  off  the
Egyptian 3rd army in 1973.  Not the same as staying pocketed.]
    Those aren't innocent explanations - so who's innocent?

    Good shot, though, Mr. Mokhtarian - you sure can leave a sour taste.
-- 

Oded Feingold     MIT AI Lab.   545 Tech Square    Cambridge, Mass. 02139
OAF%OZ@MIT-MC.ARPA   {harvard, ihnp4!mit-eddie}!mitvax!oaf   617-253-8598