lkc@whuxl.UUCP (CHARLES) (12/19/85)
I read a piece in the NY Times recently about the staff of a Human Rights monitoring group in Nicaragua being asked to come to a government office. They were also warned to stop publishing human rights reports. They refused but they were worried according to this report. I agree that such actions are reprehensible. The question is what has funding the contras done to stop it? It seems to me that the US backed war against the Sandistas has been instrumental in bringing about these results. So congratulations to Reagan and all the right-wingers on the net: you may soon have what you wanted: a genuinely repressive regime in Nicaragua ruled primarily by military considerations due to the war against them by the US. Perhaps this will provide the excuse for an outright invasion by the US. Every piece of propaganda is preparing the American people to support some such action, such as the recent claim that Cubans were on the Sandinista helicopter recently downed by anti-aircraft rockets. There are several possible outcomes to this war in Nicaragua: 1)the repressive faction of the Sandinistas continues to increase its power as the government is beleagured by the contras. Civil liberties and the genuine steps toward democracy in last year's elections fade into the blood and dust. The Sandinistas hold onto power but to do so must move closer and closer to the Soviet bloc. As the contras continue losing and Nicaragua is forced by the US economic embargo and covert war, to increase ties with the Soviet bloc, the US becomes drawn more and more into the morass by gradually increasing its military involvement. An air war is a likely step in the escalation: like the current air war in El Salvador it is invisible and seems painless to the American public. Whether invasion is seen as necessary is a matter of chance. This gradual escalation of the war seems most likely along with the loss of liberties and democracy in Nicaragua 2)the contras win in Nicaragua. They immediately return lands redistributed after the revolution to the landed elite and, of course, themselves. They stay in power through a military dictatorship supported by the US in the style of Chile, Guatemala, Brazil,etc,etc,etc: the usual style of government in Latin America. This is unlikely but possible. Of course there is no "freedom" nor democracy under this alternative either. Also, the people's health, education and chance to own and farm land deteriorates. Such things matter little to the landed elite. 3)the contras win in Nicaragua and despite the fact that 40 of 48 contra leaders are ex-Somocistas, they miraculously disavow violence and militarism and return to democracy. This is a pipe dream. It is about as possible as putting a man in the region of Alpha Centauri by the year 2000. congratulations to the extremist right-wing for bringing the Soviet bloc to Central America. tim sevener whuxn!orb