lkc@whuxl.UUCP (CHARLES) (12/19/85)
I read a piece in the NY Times recently about the staff of
a Human Rights monitoring group in Nicaragua being asked
to come to a government office. They were also warned to
stop publishing human rights reports. They refused but they
were worried according to this report.
I agree that such actions are reprehensible. The question is
what has funding the contras done to stop it? It seems to me
that the US backed war against the Sandistas has been instrumental
in bringing about these results. So congratulations to Reagan
and all the right-wingers on the net: you may soon have what you
wanted: a genuinely repressive regime in Nicaragua ruled primarily
by military considerations due to the war against them by the US.
Perhaps this will provide the excuse for an outright invasion
by the US. Every piece of propaganda is preparing the American
people to support some such action, such as the recent claim
that Cubans were on the Sandinista helicopter recently downed
by anti-aircraft rockets.
There are several possible outcomes to this war in Nicaragua:
1)the repressive faction of the Sandinistas continues to increase
its power as the government is beleagured by the contras.
Civil liberties and the genuine steps toward democracy in last
year's elections fade into the blood and dust.
The Sandinistas hold onto power but to do so must move closer
and closer to the Soviet bloc. As the contras continue losing
and Nicaragua is forced by the US economic embargo and covert
war, to increase ties with the Soviet bloc,
the US becomes drawn more and more into the morass by
gradually increasing its military involvement. An air war
is a likely step in the escalation: like the current air war
in El Salvador it is invisible and seems painless to the American
public. Whether invasion is seen as necessary is a matter of chance.
This gradual escalation of the war seems most likely along with
the loss of liberties and democracy in Nicaragua
2)the contras win in Nicaragua. They immediately return lands
redistributed after the revolution to the landed elite and, of
course, themselves. They stay in power through a military
dictatorship supported by the US in the style of Chile, Guatemala,
Brazil,etc,etc,etc: the usual style of government in Latin America.
This is unlikely but possible. Of course there is no "freedom"
nor democracy under this alternative either.
Also, the people's health, education and chance to own and farm
land deteriorates. Such things matter little to the landed elite.
3)the contras win in Nicaragua and despite the fact that 40 of 48
contra leaders are ex-Somocistas, they miraculously disavow
violence and militarism and return to democracy.
This is a pipe dream. It is about as possible as putting a man
in the region of Alpha Centauri by the year 2000.
congratulations to the extremist right-wing for bringing the Soviet
bloc to Central America.
tim sevener whuxn!orb