[net.politics] Honduras: Reagan's Springboard

rrizzo@bbncca.ARPA (Ron Rizzo) (02/26/86)

[ Reproduced without permission from the 2/20/86 Boston Globe, page 21. ]


HONDURAS: REAGAN'S SPRINGBOARD?

By Edward R. F. Sheehan         (Last of 4 articles)


SAN JOSE, Costa Rica --- If the United States invades Nicaragua, it
will need a staging base.  The Reagan administration is turning Hon-
duras, on Nicaragua's northern border, into a prime military arsenal,
and if the invasion ever happens Honduras may be the springboard.

Consider the Honduran air force base at Palmerola, in the southwest
of the country.  Palmerola is headquarters of Joint Task Force Bravo,
a rotating unit of more than 1,000 US Army and Air Force troops; the
unit has been in Honduras since 1982.  The United States has built at
Palmerola an airstrip of 8,005 feet, and uses it to land regularly
C-130 and C-5 transports (the biggest we have) and UH-1 and CH-47
helicopters, and, occasionally, even Air Force jet fighters.

In recent years, the United States had conducted joint exercises with
the Honduran armed forces that include parachute maneuvers and beach
landings, with up to 6,000 Americans participating at a cost of tens
of millions of dollars.  This year, the US Army Corps of Engineers is
conducting a joint road-building exercise over tropical and mountainous
terrain similar to the topography of Nicaragua.  American military
officials cheerfully admit the operation is "wonderful training for
war contingencies."

Besides Palmerola, the United States has military landing rights at
the Honduran bases of La Ceiba, La Mesa and Trujilo.  At La Ceiba, the
United States intercepts Nicaraguan communications; from San Lorenzo,
neart the Nicaraguan border, we send aloft remotely powered drones
(RPVs) to monitor Sandinista messages and military movements.  US
artillery units practice in Honduras periodically, and we plan to
improve Honduran naval facilities, partly for our own use.

US Navy ships maneuver off the Honduran coast, and call regularly at
Honduran ports on the Caribbean.  Our vessels include submarines,
destroyers, cruisers, guided-missile frigates and the battleship
Iowa.  The list goes on, and clearly amounts to a major component
of the US strategy to surround Nicaragua with armed and hostile states.

During my recent visit to Honduras, I asked American officials if the
enormous US military presence there was the prelude to an invasion of
Nicaragua.  They denied any such intention, or even intimidation. "We
simply want to send a signal," they said.

The signal is chilling.  It amplifies the private admission of American
officials elsewhere that the Reagan administration is interested not in
a negotiated solution with the SDandinistas --- but only in their over-
throw, or at least a radical reversal of their Marxist policies.  In
keeping with this logic, if the contras cannot topple the Sandinistas
(and they probably can't), then the United States must do it directly.
"Reagan," says a Western diplomat, "will have to choose."

His hour of choice most likely will come as he approaches the end of
his presidency, during the six or seven months following the congres-
sional elections in November.  He would probably start with air strikes.
Western military experts doubt that this alone could do the job.  "By
then the Sandinistas might have, from the Soviets, an effective air
defense," says one.  "Reagan would have to send in several divisions
of ground troops as well, and it could all be very bloody."

With swiftness and luck, American losses might be kept relatively low,
but thousands, maybe tens of thousands, of Nicaraguans would inevitably
die.  The United States would bear the moral burden of yet another
intervention in Latin America, and any new regime it sponsored, however
well intentioned, would be a pariah among the Latin nations. 

My visits to Honduras, the contras and Nicaragua persuaded me of the
mounting probability of worst-case scenarios combined with the Kafka-
esque and an element of Greek tragedy [ oh, please ].  Both sides ---
Reagan and the Sandinistas --- are locked in ideological rigor from
which they will not or cannot escape.  With diplomacy at an impasse,
there is a relentless escalation of martial planning --- on the American
side, with Honduras and the contras; on the Sandinista side, by the
increasingly harsh militarization of their society.

The Contadora process, sponsored by Mexico, Panama, Venezuela and
Columbia --- aimed essentially at arms reduction on both sides and
internal reconciliation in Nicaragua --- is moribund.  It will die
altogether, unless the arms race in Central America is arrested and
both the United States and Nicaragua resort seriously to diplomacy.

Diplomacy --- at this late hour --- will be painfully difficult.  The
United States would have to forswear invasion, suspend or reduce its
aid to the contras, and cease its saber-rattling from Honduras.  The
Sandinistas would have to face the reality of their ruined economy,
stop persecuting the church, pack off thousands more of their Cuban
and Soviet-bloc advisers, and undertake a serious dialogue to share
power with the internal opposition.

Neither side could emerge as a clear winner, and in exchange for the
concessions of the Sandinistas, the United States and the people of
Nicaragua would have to resign themselves to a regime on the American
mainland that retains some elements of Marxism.

Hardly an ideal solution --- but one that would at least prevent a
torrent of bloodshed.  I do not, of course, expect such a solution
to be achieved.

***********************************************************************

Edward R. F. Sheehan, novelist and a winner of the Overseas Press Club
Award, is a former fellow of Harvard's Center for International Affairs.

gtaylor@astroatc.UUCP (Greg Taylor) (02/26/86)

One of the other little discussed matters relating to American
intervention in Central America is the militarization of the
region by us as the "friend of Central American countries". Take
a look at the % of the wealth of, say, Honduras and Costa Rica
over the last ten years devoted to military strength (I thing that
one of those countries didn't even *have* a military to speak
of before '74 or so) and compare that to AMerican Involvement.

franka@mmintl.UUCP (Frank Adams) (03/06/86)

In article <298@astroatc.UUCP> gtaylor@astroatc.UUCP (Greg Taylor) writes:
>One of the other little discussed matters relating to American
>intervention in Central America is the militarization of the
>region by us as the "friend of Central American countries". Take
>a look at the % of the wealth of, say, Honduras and Costa Rica
>over the last ten years devoted to military strength (I thing that
>one of those countries didn't even *have* a military to speak
>of before '74 or so) and compare that to AMerican Involvement.

Costa Rica not only didn't have a military before '74, they don't have
one now.

Frank Adams                           ihnp4!philabs!pwa-b!mmintl!franka
Multimate International    52 Oakland Ave North    E. Hartford, CT 06108