[net.politics] Start Wars: 95% is no good: re to Arromdee

orb@whuxl.UUCP (SEVENER) (03/17/86)

    
>> According to this reasoning, you should support SDI, since SDI would 
>> cut down the Soviets' effective number of missiles--(say) 95% of their
>> missiles won't get through, meaning they have, in effect, 95% fewer
>> missiles.

Even according to Start Wars advocates like Lt. Gen Abrahamson,
stopping 95% of *current* Soviet warheads is the *best* Start Wars
can be expected to achieve.  What does this mean?
This means that out of the Soviet Union's 7500 *current* strategic 
warheads 350 strategic warheads would still strike targets in
the US.  These 350 strategic warheads would pack the destructive
power of thousands of Hiroshimas - enough to thoroughly obliterate
the US and our population.  Indeed the Soviets have approx 900,000
times the power of the bomb dropped on Hiroshima - 5% of
that arsenal is roughly 45,000 times the destructive power of
Hiroshima.  Of course not all of this destructive power is
concentrated in *strategic* nuclear warheads or nuclear warheads
capable of striking the US. But there is certainly plenty enough
to kill millions of Americans.  This is *IF* the Soviets deploy
no new weapons to counter our Start Wars program.
 
It should be quite obvious than any dreams that Start Wars can
somehow "defend our population" is simply that : a dream
on the order of saying we could put a man in the Alpha Centauri
system by the Year 2000!
 
          tim sevener   whuxn!orb

berman@psuvax1.UUCP (Piotr Berman) (03/21/86)

> >> According to this reasoning, you should support SDI, since SDI would
> >> cut down the Soviets' effective number of missiles--(say) 95% of their
> >> missiles won't get through, meaning they have, in effect, 95% fewer
> >> missiles.
>
for research proposals for SDI and my general impression was that
research proposals for SDI, and my impression was that the idea
of SDI is based on physical principles, like possibility of creating
a powerful X-ray beam ar to propel small pellets to speeds 20-30 times
larger than the speed acievable by gun bullets.

However, almost none of those ideas is supported by any of existing
technologies.  This reminds me the idea of fussion power.  According
to predictions made 20 years ago, by now we should have prototype
fussion power stations.  Now nobody ventures to make any predictions:
after spending billions of dollars and twenty years, scientists
find more problems than solutions.  Example:  to contains very hot
plasma, powerful electromagnets are used, however the existing
electromagnets are still to weak and already too unstable to dream
about any industrial use involving large energies.

We know how difficult it is to build a flawless nuclear power station
or a space shuttle.  We also know how under political pressure an
experimental and potentially dangerous vehicle may be converted,
for propaganda purposes, into an "dependable space truck", used
to carry senators, foreign princes and school teachers.  Now we
can read that no expert could reasonable assert that the shuttle
was any more dependable than a prototype of a military aircraft.

Even in the case of space shuttle, based on well-checked physical
principles (unlike the principles supporting SDI) and and which is
a devise by many orders of magnitude simpler, we witnessed huge cost
overruns (which gobbled many parts of the space programs) and delays.
Now the space program is a shadow if its former self.  Similarly,
incorporating SDI as a cornerstone of our defence can gobble tremendous
resources which could be used for more conventional defence, military
research and, last but not least, civilian research.

A last remark on SDI.  US has also another program: to build a
stealth bomber, which inside atmosphere will be udetectable
by radar.  How SDI can defend against such a strategic
bomber?   Will be it possible to build undetectable submarines
with undetectable cruise missiles on board?  It seems that it
is easier to develop countermeasures for SDI than SDI itself.

Piotr Berman

sykora@csd2.UUCP (Michael Sykora) (03/24/86)

>/* rb@ccivax.UUCP (rex ballard) /  4:29 pm  Mar 21, 1986 */

> . . . and being able to
>assure the survival of enough military and political leadership to
>perpetuate both the species and the conflict.

If military and political leaders are to be the seed for continuing the
species, is it really worth preserving?  :-)