weber@fluke.UUCP (07/05/83)
My relatives from Wyoming are about convinced that SILVER is a good investment at this time. I'm concerned about the impact of the Japanese Disk Camera and the impact it will have on the photo industry, a major silver consumer. I would like to hear your comments, opinions, suggestions on this subject. Mail to me or post to net.invest if the info is of general interest. Ken Weber John Fluke Mfg. Co. Everett, Wa. (weber)
sjk@sri-unix.UUCP (07/19/83)
#R:fluke:-101300:sri-unix:11400002:000:170 sri-unix!sjk Jul 9 23:12:00 1983 Well, as long as you don't invest in the stock market... it'll crash next year. Do you think silver is a better choice than gold? scott kramer <sjk@ucbvax, ucbvax!sjk>
kiessig@fortune.UUCP (07/27/83)
Silver WAS a better investment than gold through the latter half of last year. Lately, though, the gold:silver ratio, and other indicators, seem to be saying that they are as good as one another. I would still favor silver a little over gold, but not much. If you decide on investing in the metals directly, I would suggest coins. Much more liquid than other forms. There are also things like certificates, etc., but they have problems. If you're considering investing in precious metals, may I suggest you try mining shares? There are several reasons for this. If a company can mine gold, say, for $300/oz., and gold is priced at $400, they make $100/oz. Now, if gold were to go up to $500/oz., and you were invested in the metal itself, you would make a 25% profit. However, the mining company has doubled its profits, since it is now making $200/oz. profit. The stock price normally would reflect this. Also, there are a number of mining companies with listed options. This gives you a chance to add some extra leverage when the time is right. Doing that with the metal - in the commodoties market - is pretty risky (in other words, you can lose more money than you've invested, and you may not even be able to sell if things get bad, and you're subject to margin calls, etc.). I have some suggestions on various mining companies, if you're interested. Rick
rg@eisx.UUCP (R. Gilbert) (06/26/84)
What makes silver prices go up and down. I've been watching silver over the last 6 months and have seen it bounce between $8.50 and $10.00 It is now below $8.40 and I wonder if it is a good time to buy some. But what actually drives the price? Is it the interest rates? Could someone give me a brief idea. And any comments on a silver investment would also be welcome.
rbg@cbosgd.UUCP (Richard Goldschmidt) (06/29/84)
The price of silver tends to vary with the prices of other precious metals like gold, although the large industrial demand for it can sometimes also be a factor. The prices of precious metals are affected by a host of other factors: increasing interest rates make metals less attractive as an investment because of holding costs, margin and lack of return, while rising dollars generally cause the price of metals to go down on international markets. Inflation is generally good for metal prices, and they are advertised as being a hedge on inflation. There are a variety of studies on long term cyclic behavior of metal prices, most of which are basically oriented towards the issue of timing. The issue of vehicle however, is also very important. It is very easy for a small investor to get in way over their heads when investing in futures contracts, while buying the real thing leads to storage problems. Another possibility is to buy stocks or stock options of mining companies, or a mutual fund which specializes in the stocks of these companies. International Investors mutual fund has achieved an average return of about 25%/year over the last 20 years investing primarily in gold mining stocks. However, a lot of their investments are in South African companies which has both moral implications and potential political instabilities. If you believe we are in for a long term inflationary trend, this is probably a relatively good time to buy. --Rich Goldschmidt cbosgd!rbg
robertk@tekig.UUCP (Robert Kaires) (06/29/84)
I would like to preface this by saying that I am not an expert. I do however have some ideas on silver. Comments are encouraged. Silver is somewhat like gold in that it responds to inflationary pressures, war,etc. Unlike gold however it is heavily used in industry, mostly in photo-processing and electronics.(gold is also used in electronics but is a very small percentage) I believe this makes silver a more risky investment since a replacement could be found in industry thereby driving the price(value) down. People like Howard Ruff say that when inflation resumes its course silver could go to $100, gold to $2000. (ball park). Percent wise this is approximately 1000% for silver 500% for gold making silver the better investment. There are many ways to invest in silver (and gold) : 1 Silver stock... Sunshine for example (listed on NYSE) 2 Mutual fund specializing in precious metals 3 "Junk" silver ... pre-1964 quarters,dimes 4 silver bullion ... industrial strength bars of silver 5 silver coins ... silver dollars etc. 6 silver certificates ... pieces of paper representing bullion for example Merrill Lynch silver certificates. 7 Any others??? I would like to see more on net.invest so send in those articles.
adm@cbneb.UUCP (07/04/84)
#R:eisx:-74900:cbnap:15300001:000:3508
cbnap!cmv Jul 4 14:31:00 1984
<>
There are many things that make silver prices go up and down. First of all
the demand for silver is primarily industrial (although it is now becoming
more and more an investment metal). These industrial demands are growing.
For example, in June of 1982 silver hit a bottom of $4.84 per troy ounce
due to widespread rumors that the photographic industry would dramatically
reduce the need for silver because of new advances in technology. In fact
this almost came about, in West Germany at the International Photo Show
Sony was supposed to display its new video still camera which would be used
for taking still portraits using a video camera system. At the last minute
they withdrew because of Kodak's suprising announcement of a new video
display capacity for disc negatives. Kodak's system was far superior to
Sony's system, far less expensive, and uses silver film in the system.
This opens up a whole new area for photography which means more industrial
silver use.
Another example is Russia, who has been a big exporter of silver for some time
has been recently been buying up huge amounts of silver (10-15 million ounces
in 1982). The most likely cause of this is a temporary shortage due to
increased use in the electronics, photographic, and military fields. They are
not expected to be consistant buyers (they curtailed buying when silver prices
hit $11.00).
Also, the supply of newly mined silver has been slowly falling short of
the worldwide demand in recent years. For example, one of the biggest Swiss
banks (Credit Suisse) is a very large silver bullion dealer. In 1980 it
declared the market to have a silver surplus of 6,126 tons. In 1981, the
bank declared that the market surplus was down to 2,830 tons, in 1982
the surplus was 700 tons, and in 1983 it was down to 250 metric tons.
This is due to the increased industrial demand for silver
Other markets for silver include electronics, jewelery, and explosives.
All of these silver markets are recovering and are expected to reach normal
levels and even exceed them in 1984.
For some time now there have been large speculative orders for silver bullion.
Reportedly, mid-East and European buyers have been entering huge buy orders
(up to 100,000 ounces at a time) in American markets. However, the turnover
rate on these speculations has been fast. Large investors can turn over
200,000 ounces of silver in a couple of weeks and receive a $2-$3 per
ounce profit on it.
Other factors that are currently effecting silver are:
Mine production sharply down.
Coin melt and scrap production down.
Silver coin production on the rise.
Industrial substitutes for silver are few and usually more expensive
than the metal itself.
Now, as I read this I see that I have been somewhat biased towards the
"bullish" tendencies of the market. However, as far as I can see, with
silver currently at $8.50 per ounce (Tuesday July 3) I tend to agree
with these experts that buying silver at this price is as close to a
no-risk investment as you can get. Personally, I went for silver options
which are somewhat more risky that buying bullion, but the profit that
can be made is an order of magnitude greater.
References for the above information include:
"The Money Advocate", August 1983
"The Gold Newsletter", Dec 15, 1982
Let's hear some other opinions on this or any other investments that
are currently hot!
Craig Votava
AT&T Bell Laboratories, Columbus
...ihnp4!cbnap!cmvbwm@ccieng2.UUCP (Brad Miller) (07/07/84)
Ah, silver. I have made several dollars here, and I would like to share some presumed wisdom with all you out in netland. 1) DO NOT BUY SILVER NOW. There is a substantial oversupply, industrial use has been cut, and will be cut more. Additionally, silver is the 'poor man's' investment: there are MANY people who own silver. Normally, I would say that silver for under $10.00 an ounce is a good buy (I bought two years ago when it was at $5.90), but I think it will not break 11 for quite a while yet. Gold is another story. In fact, I suspect that while normally silver follows a given ratio with gold (around 45:1)_ I suspect that ratio will increase in the next year. Why? Basic inflationary fears will send people running to gold. Silver too, but historically, silver does not seem to have performed as well as gold during most inflationary phases of the economy. Silver is also in substantial oversupply in the USSR (according to Personal Finance) and they could begin dumping any time they want (there wheat harvest is off 10% so far this year, so they may need to raise money to import additional grain). Take it or leave it. That's the way I see it. I think gold or platinum, maybe rhodium will perform much better over the next 1-2 years than silver. Brad Miller -- ...[cbrma, rlgvax, ritcv]!ccieng5!ccieng2!bwm
behm@dosadi.DEC (01/23/85)
subject ; silver Again I have precious metal (especially silver) brokers try to sell me options, and commodities. I haven't been following the precious metal markets for about two years now. does anybody out there have any thoughts on the subject mater.
rbg@cbosgd.UUCP (Richard Goldschmidt) (01/24/85)
It is much safer and less nerve-wracking to follow price trends rather than
try to pick tops and bottoms. Right now metals are in a weak down trend.
So for options or futures in silver, puts and shorts may be more appropriate
for the next few months.
Rich Goldschmidt {ucbvax,ihnp4,decvax,allegra} !cbosgd!rbg
ARPA: cbosgd!rbg@ucbvaxbehm@dosadi.DEC (06/04/85)
Does anybody out there have any insight on investing in silver now that the price is well within bargain hunters range. I'm not sure that this week or the next few weeks would be a good time to buy (with OPEC having it troubles, prime rate coming done, economy slowing, and inflation is down and could stay there) even with the price hovering about 6.20. Just looking for comments.
ec120bgt@sdcc7.UUCP (ANDREW VARE) (06/11/85)
Silver doesn't have a bright future :-) because industrial demand has been sluggish lately, and the inflation outlook has not increased markedly. People buy metals when they think other investments will have negative real returns, since in the past metals have given returns roughly equalling the inflation rate. Although not a heavy metal freak :-) I do dabble in penny stocks when my meager college income allows. Sometimes the equities issued by metal producers perform better than the actual metals during upswings, due to the income aspects of dividends, and relative costs associated with an actual commodity future. The Wall Street Journal has a section on futures as well as foreign exchange rates which should well be read in conjunction. ARE THERE ANY MORE BULLS OUT THERE? atv