ler@ihuxb.UUCP (Litzhoff) (01/04/86)
I am looking for comments on Dick Davy's newsletter. As I understand it he collects other newsletters and presents a summary of the authors' comments on market conditions. What is the cost and any other tid bits of information are greatly welcomed. Thank you L. Litzhoff
dave@cylixd.UUCP (Dave Kirby) (01/07/86)
In article <1193@ihuxb.UUCP> ler@ihuxb.UUCP (Litzhoff) writes: > >I am looking for comments on Dick Davy's newsletter. >As I understand it he collects other newsletters and presents a >summary of the authors' comments on market conditions. >What is the cost and any other tid bits of information are greatly >welcomed. I believe you are referring to Dick Davis Digest, since he does collect other newsletters and gives you a summary of their comments. His address is: Dick Davis Digest P. O. Box 2828 Ocean View Station Miami Beach, FL 33140 (His phone number is (305) 531-7777 if you want to call instead of write.) It is published 24 times a year, $95/year or $160 for 2 years. The last I heard, he also offers trial subscriptions; you might call and find out if he still does. He used to advertise in Barron's offering these trials, but I haven't seen him lately. I took out a trial subscription a year ago, and so I can tell you a little bit about his newsletter. It starts with a "Personal Note," in which Mr. Davis gives his opinion of what the market is going to do, based on the letters he reads himself. Then there is an article called "Spotlight Stock," which highlights a stock recently recommended by one of his newsletter writers. On the next few pages are more stock recommendations from various newsletters, complete with direct quotes from the authors concerning the recommendations. He also lists the address of each newsletter quoted, along with subscription prices. Another section, usually around page 6, is called "Where's the Market Going?" He quotes a good sampling from several of the top newsletters, and always includes several differing opinions. The most amusing quotes usually come from Joe Granville, because he is almost consistently wrong about the direction of the market. (If you take Granville's advice, and do exactly the opposite, you are bound to make money. For instance, the Dick Davis letter published 9/23/85, the EXACT BOTTOM from which this current bull market started to soar, Granville was quoted as advising, "Sell all stocks. We are seen to be in the very first leg of a severe bear market. This is big stuff, the mere START of a major bear market wherein crash action now would be merely the opening gun in a long drawn out slide. When a buy signal does arrive, it will only herald a bear market rally, not a new bull market. I see the possibility of such a signal late in the year at sharply lower prices." Ridiculously wrong comments like this from Granville are almost worth the price of the newsletter in the amusement they provide.) Davis' own comment at this critical juncture in the market was very hedgy. Essentially he said he didn't know for sure what was going to happen, but we will all come out all right if we buy for the long term and watch the fundamentals. Of the 9 newsletters he quoted, 4 were decidedly bullish and 5 were decidedly bearish. I found Davis' newsletter very good reading (typically 12 pages stuffed with recommendations and predictions), but not very useful to me personally, since I am a very short-term oriented trader. Keep in mind that since the quotes are from his own subscriptions, they are typically 2 weeks to a month old. But it is worth subscribing to if you are shopping for a newsletter that suits you, because he quotes a different variety of newsletters every issue, and you will get a good sampling. Another newsletter along the same line is Investors Intelligence, 2 East Ave., Larchmont, NY 10538 ($108/yr, 3 month trial is $24). This newsletter also publishes recommendations and predictions from other letters, but it is much more technically oriented than Dick Davis. They keep scores of charts which they publish every other week, including a "bearish sentiment index" which charts the number of advisors who are bearish; the theory is that when most advisors are bearish, it is a good time to buy stocks, since most advisors are wrong. I love the cynicism displayed by this chart. There are several point-and-figure charts of the Dow and other strange market statistics (such as the percent of NYSE stocks currently trading above their 10-week moving average - a market reversal is supposedly in the offing when the percentage reaches 70% or drops below 30%). The 12/21/84 issue has no less than 30 charts in it. A technician's fantasy! Investors Intelligence quotes more sources on where the market's going than Dick Davis, who concentrates mainly on individual stock recommendations. And, yes, they also quote from Granville. (The issue of 12/21/84, printed one month before the January rally that led to the new all-time highs later this year, quotes Granville as saying that his "confusion index" was giving its most bearish signal since it was started a year ago, so he was predicting that the "bear market" which had just started would continue to crash downward throughout 1985.) Investor's Intelligence has a telephone hotline available to subscribers, which I like; Dick Davis has no hotline. To summarise: For the trader who is interested in making money on predicting market swings, Investor's Intelligence is the best fit. For the investor who concentrates on long-term buy-and-hold buy- value-and-stick-with-it strategies, Dick Davis is better. WARNING: The latest news from Granville is that he has turned, as he puts it, "reluctantly bullish." In view of this, I would sell all stocks. (For the uninitiated: bullish = optimistic, bearish = pessimistic) ----------------------------------------------------------------- Dave Kirby ( ...!ihnp4!akgub!cylixd!dave) "Truth will become the hallmark of the Nixon administration." - Herbert Klein