jeff@dciem.UUCP (Jeff Richardson) (01/14/86)
There are a large number of stats by which goaltenders are judged,
such as goals against average, won-lost-tied record, shutouts and
save percentage. Minutes played should be considered too, because
better goalies tend to get more ice time, and because good stats in
the other categories mean more if they're kept up over a greater number
of games. I've been thinking that there should be a simple rating
system that combines all of these factors, similar to the NFL's
quarterback rating system; something that will give us a quantitative
way of judging who really should be considered the top goalie, based on all
statistical areas. Well, I think I've come up with one. Here's the
formula:
Rating = MP/30 + 2*SO + (W-L)/2 + SA/15 - GA + LS/2
Where:
MP = minutes played
SO = shut-outs
W = wins
L = losses
SA = shots against
GA = goals against
LS = length of season (80 games in the NHL)
The last term was added to try to prevent negative ratings, and because
at the end of the season it puts the top goalies in the same point range
as some of the top forwards.
If shot data is unavailable, my rating system can still be used. Just
eliminate the term involving shots, and change the first term to MP/15.
This, of course, won't be as good as considering the shots, but at least
it will give you a rating you can use that combines all the other factors.
This rating system can be used on other leagues as well, but some of the
magic numbers should be changed if the league's average goals per team per
game is very different from 4 and average shots per team per game is very
different from 30.
To try it out, I've run it on last season's goalies, which I'll post in
a separate article. I hope to get hold of this season's data soon, and
if I do, I'll post it too.
Comments or criticisms of this method are encouraged.
--
Jeff Richardson, DCIEM, Toronto (416) 635-2073
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