[net.startrek] Subtle Error

charlie@cca.UUCP (06/20/83)

My favorite error occurred in an episode where Kirk and Spock are
stranded on what they think is a primitive planet at the outbreak of a
war between the Federation and some enemy or other.  When Kirk outlines
his plan to assasinate the enemy leader, Spock estimates the chances of
success at 735.4 to 1.  Later, Kirk asks for their chances, and Spock
replies "Less than 700 to one."  Kirk comments that the odds are
improving.  Spock says "Yes, it was highly unlikely that we would have
gotten as far as we have."

Now, assuming "Less than 700 to one" implies somewhere between 600 and
700 (I think that's fair), probability theory dictates the odds of them
getting as far as they did at between 81% and 95%.  Such an event should
not have been called "highly unlikely".