[net.physics] 50-megaton bombs vs. densepack

henry (12/29/82)

A single 50-megaton bomb is not much more useful against a densepack
ICBM field than a single 1-megaton bomb.  Big bombs are inefficient:
they smash the living bejesus out of a very small area near their
center, but the long-range effects scale not linearly with the yield
but as something like the 2.7th root.  If you are trying to hit a
city, this means that the bigger bomb wastes most of its extra power
devastating an already-ruined central area.  If you are trying to
hit ICBM silos, it means that the "kill radius" does not grow very
quickly as the bombs get bigger.

Personally, I think the biggest problem with densepack is that neither
the hardness of the silos nor the protective effects of fratricide is
subject to experimental verification.  (Not without massive violation
of the Test Ban Treaty, at least.)  This may not be too serious a
problem, though, because while we can't be sure it will work, the
Russians can't be sure it won't.  The logic of deterrence is strange...

My own thought is that if one *must* have relatively fixed-site land-
based missiles (an increasingly dubious assumption...), the best way
is a densepack field with some form of active defence (ABMs or something
similar).  It is much easier to defend a small, tough ICBM field than
to defend a large, vulnerable nation;  there are at least two feasible
defence systems.

It is true that we ought to be moving towards defence, rather than
deterrence.  (I think it inappropriate to apply the former word to
the latter concept.)  The trick is to survive the transition.  We will
still need credible deterrents for a little while yet.

							Henry Spencer
							U of Toronto

dag (01/08/83)

There have been several suggested basing methods for the MX.  Densepack
seems to be too vulnerable, the moving track system would take too much
valuable land and labour, not to mention the entire cement output of the
US for 4 years...  I suggest that we base the MX in Siberia...   v   
                                                                ( :#
                                                                 ^

(I'd rather not see the MX at all...  Put the money into a @I(@B(Civilian))
space agencey...  That would get the USSR thinking...)

						Afraid to list my name,
						But without choice...

							Daniel Glasser
							...!decvax!sultan!dag