[net.physics] leaps of faith

don@allegra.UUCP (D. Mitchell) (04/11/84)

Mr. Caplan.  I am pretty sure that if a room holds 8 gas molecules,
that in a short while all of them will be on one side for an instant.
If there are 10^30 molecules I am content to believe that it will just
take a little longer.  I have a certain naive faith that arithmetic
continues to work even when I run out of fingers and toes to count on.

rpw3@fortune.UUCP (04/13/84)

#R:allegra:-239700:fortune:8600015:000:902
fortune!rpw3    Apr 12 20:00:00 1984

+--------------------
| Mr. Caplan.  I am pretty sure that if a room holds 8 gas molecules,
| that in a short while all of them will be on one side for an instant.
| If there are 10^30 molecules I am content to believe that it will just
| take a little longer.  I have a certain naive faith that arithmetic
| continues to work even when I run out of fingers and toes to count on.
+--------------------

The problem with this is that, with a VERY high degree of probability,
LONG LONG before ALL the molecules go to one half of the room, you will
see an event in which MOST of the molecules go to one side of the room,
blowing the walls out due to overpressure (as in a tornado), thus
prematurely ending the experiment...  ;-}

Rob Warnock

UUCP:	{ihnp4,ucbvax!amd70,hpda,harpo,sri-unix,allegra}!fortune!rpw3
DDD:	(415)595-8444
USPS:	Fortune Systems Corp, 101 Twin Dolphin Drive, Redwood City, CA 94065

pmd@cbscc.UUCP (Paul Dubuc) (04/18/84)

>Mr. Caplan.  I am pretty sure that if a room holds 8 gas molecules,
>that in a short while all of them will be on one side for an instant.
>If there are 10^30 molecules I am content to believe that it will just
>take a little longer.  I have a certain naive faith that arithmetic
>continues to work even when I run out of fingers and toes to count on.

Depends on how big a room you use, doesn't it?

It seems to me that you can do a lot with mathematics that doesn't actually
happen.  Especially if you assume the time available for the event to
happen to be infinite (or at least "enough") and that nothing will ever
happen during that huge expanse of time to make the event less probable
(which would out weigh things that might make it more probable, of course).

Does mathematical proof always "prove" that things can happen, or have
happened?  (Especially when dealing with phenomena that require much
time in order to be "probable").  Isn't a mathematical model always
simpler than the thing it models?  And couldn't that difference in
complexity between the actual and the theoretical make the difference
between whether or not something is actually possible?

Haven't much faith in things that only happen on paper.

Paul Dubuc
-- 

Paul Dubuc 		ihnp4!cbscc!pmd

crummer%AEROSPACE@sri-unix.UUCP (05/13/84)

From:            Charlie Crummer <crummer@AEROSPACE>

The activity of tossing a coin can be thought of as an experiment to find out
if the coin is good or not.  Remember the guys that won a bundle on roulette
in Las Vegas?  They studied the wheel and found out its bias.  

I knew a sharp
engineer that worked out a Keno scheme.  He divided the 80 numbers into 4
groups of 20.  He then observed the game for a while and made a histogram of
the hits.  Then he bet on numbers in the LOWEST group, like betting on T after
the string HHHHHHHHHH, because "The Law of Averages" would somehow have to be 
satisfied.  Ideology vs. pragmatism or, in the vernacular of control systems
theory, open-loop vs. closed-loop.  Only humans can exhibit such stupidity!

  --Charlie