david@fisher.UUCP (David Rubin) (08/05/85)
The discussion marches eastwards! England, France, Germany, Italy,
and now...Austria-Hungary.
For convenience's sake, I shall assume that the Austro-Prussian War of
1866 did not compel the official recognition of Magyar peculiarism by
the Hapsburgs, and shall refer to the Danubian entity by the shorter
"Austria".
Austria has a near-lock on two neutral centers in 1901: Serbia and
Greece. Let us consider two cases: a specific one, wherein Austria
allies strongly with Turkey from the very start, and the more general
one, wherein Austria pursues a more independent initial policy or
allies with some other power.
First, the more general. Under these circumstances, unless Austria
has decided upon some exotic joint endeavor with Italy (cf. Steve
Knight's article on the Key Lepanto and (yeecch!) the Three Fleets),
it would be an act of folly to pass on either of those two supply
centers. Here,
F Tri -> Alb and
A Bud -> Ser
are almost forced. The question then becomes: what to do with A Vie?
The choices are:
(1) A Vie -> Boh. Don't ever do this. If you are
trying for sneak attack on Mun in 1901, it won't
be much of a surprise carried out this way.
(2) A Vie -> Tyl. Do this once in a hundred times on
your own initiative. Maybe you can convince Italy
it's going to Munich, or Germany that it's going
to Venice. Of course, if the Italian player is
furtively glancing at the Tyrol, this should then
be given top consideration. After all, if Italy
is hostile, you must outguess him either in the
Spring or in the Fall (if you allow A Ven -> Tyl).
If you think your chances are better guessing
immediately, by all means...
(3) A Vie -> Tri. If Italy is not to be trusted.
Probably the most common choice. It's drawback is
not that it prevents the build of a fleet (Austria
usually doesn't require too many early on), but
that it puts Austria to a guess if Italy made the
more common attack A Ven -> Tyl rather than the
anticipated A Ven -> Tri. See #2.
(4) A Vie -> Bud. Don't do this, either. We all know
that it's directed at Rumania, so if you're going
to be greedy, you may as well do #5 in your effort
for three. If you're going to offend the Russians
this early, why do it half-heartedly?
(5) A Vie -> Gal. You must be a very lucky (or skilled)
Hapsburg to pull off this one, but it gives you a
chance for three if Turkey is friendly. Of course, if
Russia is hostile, its merits are self-evident; it also
gains time for the Italians to make themselves felt
in the East if there's a Russo-Turkish alliance. Of
course, if the Russians were not allied with the
Turks, they will certainly try after you do this.
(6) A Vie Holds. Don't do this. You can defend
against an attack from either Russia or Italy.
It's not a good idea to defend against neither.
This is sort of analogous to the horse who dies of
thirst because he is exactly midway between two
water holes. If you must be passive, #3 is a far
better way to be it.
Now, what if that elusive Austro-Turkish alliance has been nailed down
in Spring 1901? Here, we must consider two subcases:
(a) Russia is hostile or to be the first target. Go with
#5 above, as it is unhealthy to agree to cede Greece for
Turkish support into Rumania. You do NOT want Turkish
armies in both Bulgaria and Greece. Promise, instead, to
support Turkey into Rumania; exchange centers later as
called for, if the alliance survives long enough for an
Austrian assault on Germany and a Turkish assault on
Italy.
(b) Russia is friendly or neutral and Italy is the first
target. No doubt, you have (shudder) agreed to turn over
Greece to the Ottomans, so the strongest move you can make
is:
F Tri -> Adr
A Vie -> Tri
A Bud -> Ser.
You could go all out (all three units) for Venice, but
you'd have to give up Serbia (that is too much, no matter
what you are offered) and you might wind up with nothing
if A Ven -> Tri or Tyl. In any case, you've given up a
likely build, so you better have secured an extremely
favorable diplomatic situation as compensation.
David Rubin
{allegra|astrovax|princeton}!fisher!david