david@fisher.UUCP (David Rubin) (12/18/84)
Now that the flurry of trading activity has subsided, I thought I'd
share my musings on them with the net.
CARTER FOR BROOKS, ET. AL.:
People were quick to point out that this trade satisfied all
of the Mets' needs: a right-handed power hitter and an experienced
catcher all rolled into one. The Expos were not functioning
irrationally, though. They never evolved into the dynasty that was
expected primarily because they never got any production from the
middle infield. In addition, with Dawson's mobility cut down and
Raines a better left than center fielder, they also needed a center
fielder. Along with the acquisition of Law from the White Sox for
second base, they now have Brooks for short and Winningham for center.
Fitzgerald can, of course, take over behind the plate. Overall, quite
a rational move for a team likely to finish fifth next year, and if
Youmans does develop into a good starter, the deal may look good in
Montreal in three years.
Incidentally, I think that the additional power that Carter
brings enables the Mets to get the offensively potent, but
undisciplined swinging Wilson out of the #2 spot in the order. Mookie
can provide much excitement, but until he stops swinging at bad
pitches, the top of the order is not the place for him. A number 2
man ought to have, in decreasing order of importance, (1) a high on
base percentage, (2) bat control (effective sacrificing and/or hitting
and running), and (3) speed. I'll give up much of number 3 to get more
of 1 and 2. Therefore (Davey, are you listening?), I suggest that the
Mets move Hernandez up in the order against right handed pitching, so
that the Mets' lineup looks like:
vs. RHP vs. LHP
------- -------
Backman 2b Chapman 2b
Hernandez 1b Wilson cf
Strawberry rf Hernandez 1b
Carter c Carter c
Foster lf Foster lf
Wilson cf Strawberry lf
Johnson 3b Knight 3b
Santana ss Santana ss
I don't want to do to the same against lefties, since having Carter bat
third would clog the basepaths too much for even my tastes, and
Strawberry has too large a platoon differential.
HENDRICK FOR TUDOR:
Remember how Whitey Herzog implied that he had traded
Hernandez because the Cards couldn't financially afford to keep both
him and Hendrick? Well, so much for that excuse.
The Pirates must have read my predictions from last season, in
which I noted it was insane for the number one pitching team to trade
hitting (Easler) for MORE pitching (Tudor) after having already lost
Parker to free agency. They learned their lesson well: though Lacey
is gone, they now have acquired Hendrick and seem on the verge of
acquiring Kemp. The Pirates have learned that, though pitching is THE
most important aspect of the game, it is not 100%. After all, they
led the league in ERA last season and finished last in their
division...at least they learned, though.
Trades for the Cards are irrelevent for next year, as weak
pitching and weak power doom them to last place next season (well,
maybe they can catch Montreal). Hernandez, Oberkfell, Sutter, and
now Hendrick are gone. Did you ever see a top team be disassembled
so quickly? It's hard to believe they won the World Series only two
years ago. This one, though, is not a spiteful trade; given the Cards
need for pitching, their lack of competitiveness, and Hendrick's age,
this deal is one of the few Herzog has made which has made sense.
DIAZ FOR ???:
The Phillies have serious defensive problems, inconsistent
production from the outfield, a thin bullpen, and an aging rotation.
They do have a valuable commodity: TWO power-hitting catchers. We all
know they're going to trade one of them to satisfy at least one of
their weaknesses, yet they decided to hold off until Spring before
they made a deal, hoping Diaz's value would rise. Trouble is, no one
else is waiting for Spring. For example, it is claimed by the
Phillies management that the Mets had offered them Doug Sisk; such an
offer obviously doesn't stand. Their best potential customers may not
wait for Diaz, the Phillies may find themselves with none of the above
weaknesses corrected, and the Pirates will leave them behind.
SUTCLIFFE & CO. FOR $$$$:
Evidently, the Cubs know what the Cards never did: stand pat with
a winning hand. By laying out the Tribune's dough in generous
proportions, the Cubs will start next season as cofavorites for the
division title. One suspects, though, that the Mets deal for Carter
may prompt Dallas Green to look for some improvements of his own. The
Cubs could use some left-handed power...
HENDERSON FOR EVERYONE:
This trade was a BAD one for the Yankees. They traded away
pitching (their greatest need) for offense, something which they
already had. This is the Pirates of last year in reverse! Moreover,
to use Henderson will require a change in the manager's approach to
the game (or a change in manager) and the A's were then able to
strengthen Toronto by dealing them Caudill. The Yankees got a great
player, but not the one they needed. They would have been better off
getting Caudill and leaving Henderson to someone else...
David Rubin
{allegra|astrovax|princeton}!fisher!david