radio@spuxll.UUCP (Rick Farina) (04/23/85)
Some very odd moves have been made in the NL East recently, most notably involving the Phillies and Cardinals. I can't believe, after all that they've been through, that the Cardinals gave those megabucks to O. Smith. Why bother? Trade him to someone who'll gleefully pay him, like George, and get some more Willie McGees in return. Whitey says Ozzie's glove is worth 100 rbi's. Maybe. But does it save 40+ games? I mean, the Cardinals lost Hernandez and Sutter (and, long ago, Carlton) because they did not want to fork out big beer bucks to these guys. Are they any less deserving than Ozzie??? Days before Ozzie's signing, the Cards trade for two more shortstops, guys who'd start on just about any other team: Oquendo -- sort of a Poor Man's Ozzie -- and DeJesus. You can never have enough starting shortstops on the roster, you know. Phillies fans will remember DeJesus -- he was the guy they stole from the Cubs for Bowa and Ryne-what's-his-name. So, anyway, the Cardinals give up Rucker, a fairly decent reliever, for DeJesus, now destined for a career of much bench-warming and occasional pinch-running. And what do the pitching-rich Phillies do with Rucker? They option him to AAA! Meanwhile, Oquendo, who lost his job to Raphael Santana whom the Cards traded because of Ozzie, plays in AAA waiting for the day he'll be traded because of Ozzie. I don't understand any of this. Both clubs were, not too long ago, power-houses in their division. Now both make moves that appear confused and uninspired. Meanwhile, the Mets and Cubs, ex-doormats, continue to pull away...
david@fisher.UUCP (David Rubin) (04/24/85)
> Whitey says Ozzie's glove is worth 100 rbi's. Maybe. But does it save > 40+ games? Almost certainly not. Using Bill James' Pythagorean approximation to winning percentage (% = r1^2/(r1^2+r2^2) where r1 is runs scored and r2 is opponents' runs scored), we get a guess of 10-14 games won by Ozzie's glove (using Herzog's exaggeration of its value). While it is not 40 games, if it WERE true, Smith would be worth more than Sutter and his 40+ saves. Of his 42 saves, it would be a CONSERVATIVE guess that 3/4 of those leads could have been held by other pitchers on the Cards' staff (notably Allen, who had saved 25 games with a last place team the year before he came to the Cards), leaving Sutter valued at no more than 10 games. Furthermore, we'd be comparing a typical year for Smith with a career best for Sutter; Sutter's expected value is somewhat less. Conclusion: if Smith really prevents 100 runs, he's worth more than Sutter (or Hernandez); it is the premise, not the inference, which begs for closer examination. David Rubin {allegra|astrovax|princeton}!fisher!david