dpb@philabs.UUCP (Paul Benjamin) (09/10/85)
A while back, during the argument over Pena vs. Carter, I made
the statement that stats were largely lineup dependent. This
was challenged by David Rubin, who asked me to post the stats
I quoted about Madlock batting .280 in the 6th spot, and .330
in the 3rd spot. Now, I don't have a reference for those stats,
since they were a long time ago, but a similar case has just been
published.
In the Sporting News, 9/2/85, p.30, the following stats for Don
Mattingly are printed:
Mattingly's stats Yankees record
BA Slugging W L Pct.
Batting 2nd .402 .715 27 8 .771
Batting 3rd .303 .495 42 40 .525
or 4th
We can see that not only are personal stats highly dependent
on the other people in the lineup, but also dependent on the order
in which those people bat. In this case, Mattingly gains a huge
amount from batting directly behind Rickey Henderson. See the
article for the details on why Henderson helps so much. It boils
down to speed - Henderson's presence on first base affects the
pitch selection, the defensive alignment, and the concentration
of pitcher and catcher.
This is not an isolated example, it is merely the only one for
which published stats are available. Consider McGee batting behind
Coleman in St. Louis (he is doing far better than he ever did before)
or the entire Cubs lineup (they have posted better individual stats
the last two years than they did before). For a negative example,
consider the entire Pirate lineup, in which numerous players are
batting well below their usual levels. The Henderson/Mattingly
example is just more pronounced than other examples because of the
extraordinary abilities of those two players.
So we can conclude two things:
1) Comparing individual stats for players from different teams is
a questionable procedure, at best. After all, if the same player's
stats vary greatly when shifted just one position, then imagine
how much different players' stats vary when batting in different
lineups, facing different opposition (they never face themselves)
and batting in different positions in the lineup. The particular
relevance of this point to the Pena/Carter dispute is my belief
that Carter would fare much worse batting sixth in the Pirate
lineup, than batting fourth in the Met lineup. Without Hernandez,
Strawberry, and Foster around him, he wouldn't see all those
nice fastballs. (He did have a slump earlier this year, when
Strawberry was injured. As a matter of fact, the whole team did.)
2) Speed is a very important factor in baseball. It's importance
far exceeds just the total of stolen bases. In one posting, David
Rubin calculated the extra runs that are scored when a player
steals second, and subtracted the estimated runs that are lost
when he is thrown out attempting to steal. The net total extra
runs was relatively small, so he stated that speed was not very
important. But speed influences the game in many ways other than
just stolen bases. "The threat is stronger than the execution."
Again, see the article for a fuller explanation of how Henderson's
speed beefs up Mattingly's stats.
This point also influences MVP voting. If Mattingly's performance
as a 3 or 4 hitter were prorated over the season, he would lose a
lot of hits, RBI, HR's, etc. Would he then deserve the MVP? Does
Henderson thus deserve the MVP for not only posting great numbers
himself, but helping Mattingly so much? But has Mattingly also
influenced Henderson's numbers? Maybe individual stats and awards
aren't so meaningful after all?!
Paul Benjamin