djvh@drutx.UUCP (VanHandelDJ) (10/08/85)
>> >> By the way, an interesting statistic from the Elias book: looking at all >> teams in the majors, the most runs per inning and the greatest chance of >> scoring in an inning occurs when the number 3 hitter leads off the inning. >> This suggests that the "traditional" batting order may not be the best >> after all. >> > But if you move the 1 and 2 hitters to 7 and 8, say, and improve the > runs scored in the innings in which 3 leads off, you may lose runs in > the innings in which 1 or 2 lead off. The net may be worse than originally. > You have to be VERY careful of this kind of stat. For instance, I > remember reading the obvious stat that more runs score with 1 or 2 outs than > with no outs (obvious when you think about it). This shouldn't be > interpreted as meaning that, for example, a batter should intentionally > strike out with the bases loaded and no outs, to improve his team's > odds of scoring! > Why move them to 7 & 8. What is being questioned is this: Do the 3-4-5-6 hitters produce more than the 1-2-3-4 hitters, when either the 3 or 1 hitter leads off an inning? If you moved the 3-6 hitters up to 1-4, then I would assume you move the 1-2 hitters to 5-6, not 7-8. This is an interesting finding. The RedSox used to have Dwight Evans (maybe still do) at leadoff, and it worked great. Evans is always one of the better offensive players for OB+SA, and he is consistently among the league run-scoring leaders (I think he led last year). It would be interesting to see a manager order his lineup according to ONLY OB+SA. I'm sure speed and lineup interaction play a part in a team's offensive output, but I feel that you (Paul) are very wrong in saying "OB+SA is a terribly inadequate statistic". Hopefully I will find time to compile some stats on TEAM (R+RBI) vs TEAM (OB+SA) just to show you how wrong you are. Who knows? I may learn something myself !!! Dave Van Handel
dpb@philabs.UUCP (Paul Benjamin) (10/14/85)
> > Sorry, but this posting didn't come through right to our site. Could someone please send me a copy or repost it? Thanks in advance. {ihnp4,decvax,seismo}!philabs!dpb