pss@nvuxb.UUCP (P.Schroeder) (11/22/85)
The Australian Open starts the week of 11/25 so here are some thoughts about the tournament, its possible effect on the men's '85 rankings, and a prediction. This could be the last year that the Australian Open is played on grass at Kooyong Stadium in Melbourne. In fact, it will not be held during 1986 at all since the schedule is being shifted so that, starting in 1987, the Australian Open is the first Grand Slam tournament of the year. Also, this extra time may allow for completion of the new planned facility. I'm not sure what exactly the new surface will be except for some type of artificial surface, probably like the deco-turf that is used at the U.S. Open. The past two years have seen a resurgence of interest, along with strong fields, for this tournament. Except for Connors (and last year, McEnroe due to suspension), virtually anyone with a chance to win entered. This was in marked contrast to the previous several years that saw the likes of Mark Edmondson and Brian Teacher win. How important is the Australian Open for determining the final '85 men's rankings? Well, I touched on this briefly in an earlier posting, but things have changed since then. Boris Becker will be entering the tournament after all. If he wins, a good case could be made for ranking him 2nd for 1985 since he would have two of the four Grand Slam titles. Ivan Lendl solidified his #1 ranking with a tough 5-set victory over Becker at Wembley; I can't see him ranked below #1 for '85, even if he loses in the 1st round in Melbourne. The other players with something significant (i.e., a top or near-top ranking) to gain by winning the tournament are Mats Wilander and Stefan Edberg. Wilander, by winning, would have two Grand Slam titles and should leap ahead of McEnroe into #2. An Edberg victory would give him the major breakthrough he needs to vault him into the top five, ahead of Connors. McEnroe has little to gain by winning except to firm up his hold on #2; he won't catch Lendl. I haven't heard for certain, but it's doubtful that Connors will enter; he hasn't played in the tournament since the mid '70's. Obviously, if another player wins it will give him a boost, but won't propel him past the top five or six. By the way, these "rankings" mentioned are subjective and not necessarily the ATP computer rankings. Now, who will win and why? I see the tournament as a four-horse race between Lendl, McEnroe, Wilander, and Becker, and a good case can be made for each player. Lendl is the hottest, and best, player in the world right now. McEnroe has been #1 recently, and grass has been a surface on which he has excelled with 3 Wimbledon titles in the last 5 years. Wilander is the two-time defending champion and has, during those two title runs, defeated Lendl, McEnroe, Edberg, Curren, and Kriek at Kooyong. Becker is the reigning Wimbledon champ, and his game is ideally suited to grass. While I would like to be able to pick Wilander to win a 3rd straight title, I have to go with Lendl. The grass at Kooyong is more favourable to an all-court player than the grass at Wimbledon (witness Wilander's success), and right now Lendl is the best all-court player. The U.S. Open and subsequent tournaments, have shown that Lendl's net game is vastly improved, too. We'll have to wait and see. By the way, ESPN will cover both the men's and women's semis and finals during the weekend of 12/7-12/8.