[net.chess] criticism of Bratko-Kopec experiment

mclure@SRI-UNIX@sri-unix (12/08/82)

This experiment was produced a few years ago and recently updated.  It
attempts to determine the "relative roles played by tactics and levers
according to a player's rating." Tactics consist of the usual pins,
forks, and combinations all players are familiar with.  Levers are the
Kmoch-designated "subclass of positional moves involving two opposing
pawns capable of capturing each other", thus entailing a sort of pawn
structure consideration (improving pawn structure, decimating
opponent's pawn structure, etc), the basis of positional play.  (For
the record, I haven't read any of Kmoch's writings.)

The experiment consists of 24 positions of which 12 are tactical and 12
are positional.  The subjects (rated from 1000 to 2435) were given 2
minutes per move.  Each can write a "preferred move".  Spaces are
provided for 2nd, 3rd, and 4th choices for partial credit.  "Scoring is
done by 1/N where N goes from one to four as the choice-preference of
the correct move(s)." So a correct preferred move is worth 1 point.  If
the 2nd choice is the correct move, 1/2 pts.  3rd choice is worth 1/3,
and 4th choice is worth 1/4.

It seems to me that the fundamental problem with this experiment as
regards human subjects, perhaps even a fatal flaw, is the idea of
levers.  For example, I scored 3.5 out of the 12 tactical positions,
corresponding to a tactical rating range of 1600-1799, which is
probably correct for me; however, I scored 9 out of the 12 lever
positions, corresponding to a positional rating range of 2200-2399,
clearly ridiculous.  The only subjects who scored 9 or better on the
lever positions were rated 2300, 2360, and two IM's rated 2400 and
2435.  Merely knowing there is either a tactical or a positional
solution enables one to inflate the positional score enormously.

It is fairly easy to determine if a given position calls for a tactical
or positional solution.  In the former case, laborious calculations are
required to verify that the combination exists.  In the latter, a
fairly quick scan of the pawn structure suffices.

The experiment was also run with a number of computer subjects.  In the
case of the humans, the balance of tactics to levers was fairly even
with masters and beyond.  Below that, tactics predominated slightly and
the scores on the tactical positions were usually higher.  In the cases
where positional predominated, the balance was still close.  With the
computers, the tactical value was usually much higher, indicating an
extreme bias toward tactical play, a well-known facet of computer play
although subjective until this test.